Japan’s Inflation Hovers Well Above BOJ’s Goal Even As It Slows

The pace of Japan’s consumer inflation stayed well above the Bank of Japan’s target even as price growth moderated, supporting market speculation that the central bank will hike its benchmark interest rate again this year. 

Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 3.1% from a year earlier in July, slowing from a 3.3% gain in the previous month, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported Friday. The median estimate of economists was for a gain of 3%, with expectations there would be a drag from energy prices after they spiked a year earlier

A deeper price measure that also strips out energy advanced 3.4%, unchanged from the previous period and matching the consensus estimate.

Friday’s data suggest inflation remains relatively sticky. The figures come about a week after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent took the unusual step of suggesting the BOJ is mishandling the fight against inflation, saying in an interview with Bloomberg TV that “they’re behind the curve.” Market bets on a BOJ hike have ramped up in recent weeks, helping push bond yields higher. 

The slowdown in core CPI was largely expected among forecasters after energy prices jumped 12 months ago due to the end of the government’s subsidy program. Oil prices were also down by about 10% last month compared with levels a year ago.