China 4.5% Growth, U.S. Investment Slump, India Blowout: Eco Day

China 4.5% Growth, U.S. Investment Slump, India Blowout: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Friday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help take you through to the weekend:

  • In a containment scenario, with a severe but short-lived impact, coronavirus could take China’s first-quarter GDP growth down to 4.5%, a drop from 6% in the final period of 2019 and the weakest since quarterly data began in 1992, writes Chang Shu. Tom Orlik wraps potential repercussions for the mainland and across the globe
  • The longest pullback in U.S. business investment since 2009 shows little sign of ending and could weigh on the economy just as household spending also slows. Meanwhile, Thursday’s growth data may be partly an optical illusion even as President Donald Trump says the U.S. economy has become a “roaring geyser of opportunity” as he seeks re-election
  • India’s annual budget on Saturday is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second opportunity in seven months to refresh policy priorities to support an economy on a downward spiral
  • Boris Johnson’s government wants to return the British economy to growth rates it enjoyed before the financial crisis. Mark Carney isn’t convinced that’s realistic. Carney opting for a dovish hold might shut the window on an interest-rate cut, writes Dan Hanson. Meantime, regulators are examining a spike in the pound that occurred about 15 seconds before Thursday’s BOE decision
  • Southeast Asia faces stagnation amid angst over coronavirus, as well as the drag from the U.S.-China trade war, writes Tamara Henderson
  • John Ryding, a former Fed economist now with Brean Capital, believes markets have the U.S. inflation outlook wrong
  • White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the U.S. hasn’t seen any major economic effects from coronavirus, and will refrain from using it as leverage in the second phase of China trade talks
  • Hotels, luxury shops and attractions around the world that came to rely on a flood of Chinese tourists are facing an even bigger crisis than during the SARS outbreak as the new viral outbreak is set to infect even more people than the 2003 pandemic
  • The euro area does fiscal policy wrong, the EU’s executive arm will say in a document due to be published next week, echoing ever louder warnings by central bankers about the need to make better use of public purse strings to spur growth
  • Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s first year as president was a lost one for Mexico’s economy, and 2020 may not be much better. Meanwhile, Americans gearing up for the Super Bowl helped push imports of Mexican avocados to the best of all time
  • Leaders of 53 African nations hope a landmark accord can topple entrenched obstacles to smooth-flowing commerce. So do frustrated truck drivers

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