Boris Johnson Chooses Provocation Over Progress

Boris Johnson Chooses Provocation Over Progress

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Boris Johnson has decided to make a “final” Brexit offer to the European Union on the status of Ireland, with only a few weeks to go before the Oct. 31 deadline on Britain’s departure. Judging by the outline of the U.K. prime minister’s plan as reported by his sometime employer, The Telegraph newspaper, this is not about making progress. This is provocation.

Either Brussels and the other 27 EU member states agree to unpick the promises made by both sides to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland and protect the integrity of the single market, or they face being held responsible for Britain crashing out without a deal. If this is a trial balloon from Johnson, it looks designed to be shot down. It’s more about the Brits being able to blame Brussels for a no-deal outcome by presenting them with something impossible to accept.

“If we fail to get an agreement because of what is essentially a technical discussion on the exact nature of future customs checks,” Johnson told his party conference on Wednesday, “then let us be in no doubt… The alternative is no deal.”

Johnson’s Irish plan, described as “two borders for four years,” scraps previous more sensible ideas such as keeping Northern Ireland within an all-Ireland economic zone (rejected by unionist politicians), or keeping all of the U.K. within the EU customs union (rejected by Conservative hardliners as “vassalage”). His tortuous new proposal is to have Northern Ireland leave the EU but still retain regulatory alignment on sectors such as agriculture and industrial goods until at least 2025, meaning the north-south border would be largely about maintaining customs checks. Regulatory checks would take place in the Irish Sea between the U.K. mainland and Northern Ireland. Convinced? Me neither.

The early EU reaction has been understandably scornful; none of this looks designed to deliver the frictionless trade that would uphold EU single market rules while avoiding physical border infrastructure in Ireland (a threat to the hard-won peace there if ever there was one). These were promises made by both sides. Dublin was quick to point out on Wednesday that doing customs checks on Irish soil wasn’t going to be “the basis of an agreement.”

Philippe Lamberts, co-leader of the Greens in the European Parliament, said Johnson didn’t seem to be genuinely seeking a deal.

Does that mean the door has slam shut on an agreement? Not necessarily. European officials will always want to look engaged, keen to avoid Johnson’s effort to stick the blame on them. Member states know a no-deal Brexit on Oct. 31 might deliver the worst of both worlds: A patchwork of Irish borders that ironically could end up very close to what Johnson is proposing, only with a side order of political embitterment and economic self-harm.

None of this is to suggest that Johnson is speaking from a position of strength. He has no majority in Parliament and he’s facing the legal requirement, imposed by the House of Commons, to ask for a Brexit extension he’s dead set against. Indeed, the EU might well push for its own concessions.

Nevertheless, Johnson’s attitude in front of his Tory followers and their chants of “let’s get Brexit done” serve a political purpose. The prime minister and his excitable Brexiter colleagues are anticipating a national election soon in Britain, and they believe it will pay electoral dividends to be seen to pursue Brexit at any costs, even if they’re stymied in the end by wiser and calmer heads in Parliament or the EU. Indeed, being blocked will only feed the betrayal narrative when they fight a “people versus Parliament” election campaign. 

Johnson talks openly of “collusion” between the EU and his rivals in Westminster. This is the kind of rhetoric that lends itself to hostility, not flexibility. The most likely outcome is that Europe will dodge a no-deal Brexit on Halloween by extending the deadline again, but patience and trust are being stretched thin. Downing Street wouldn’t have it any other way.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Brussels. He previously worked at Reuters and Forbes.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

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