Trump Tariff Moves May Speed Up India’s Semiconductor Push, Says UBS

As global tech supply chains come under pressure from rising trade tensions, UBS says India could emerge as a key beneficiary in the semiconductor value chain, with a $13 billion local manufacturing opportunity by 2030.

In a report, the brokerage noted that while India currently accounts for just 0.1% of global semiconductor wafer capacity, it already makes up 6.5% of global chip demand—a figure UBS expects to double from $54 billion in 2025 to $108 billion in 2030, driven by rising electronics consumption and supportive government policy.

UBS said the latest tariff hikes announced by the United States have intensified efforts by global tech companies to diversify manufacturing beyond China, accelerating the so-called “China plus one” strategy.

Apple, which already produces 15% of its iPhones in India, is reportedly planning to increase exports of Indian-made iPhones to the US as a way to mitigate potential tariff impacts. UBS expects India’s share in Apple’s global iPhone production to rise to 25% over the next two years, driven by both commercial and strategic considerations.

While India is not expected to immediately compete in advanced chip manufacturing, UBS said the country could follow China’s path by focusing first on chip assembly, testing, and mature node fabrication. “India's initial strength in analog and downstream manufacturing like electronics and auto components could support this shift,” the report said.

The brokerage highlighted the government’s push through the India Semiconductor Mission launched in 2021 and said Phase 2 policy announcements are expected soon. UBS estimates $30 billion worth of chip-related investments have been proposed or approved so far.

However, the report flagged risks around infrastructure, policy execution, and geopolitical volatility. It also cautioned that self-sufficiency in semiconductors is more complex than in electronics assembly and that India’s localisation ambitions must be viewed through a long-term lens.

UBS’s base-case forecast assumes India reaches 12% chip self-sufficiency by 2030, translating to $13 billion in domestic semiconductor revenues.