Tug Of Diamonds: Natural Vs Lab-Grown Over Market Share

The natural diamond industry is facing a downturn amid a rise of lab-grown diamonds, which have gained popularity for their affordability and nearly indistinguishable properties.

The prices of natural diamonds fell 6.4% in 2024. The massive success of lab-grown diamonds has driven natural diamond prices lower than the mining industry's expectations, primarily due to consumers seeking more affordable options.

Demand Shift

Estimates indicate that production of natural diamonds is expected to grow at approximately 1–2% per annum until 2027, below previous trends of 3–4%. The industry's growth will likely be constrained by major mine closures, production ramp-ups for existing mines and price volatility, according to a report by McKinsey & Co.

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Challenges

India is the world's largest exporter of polished diamonds, processing about 90% of the world's rough diamonds by volume and accounting for 33% of global diamond exports by value.

However, the country's diamond sector is experiencing a severe crisis. Both imports and exports have sharply declined in the past three years, while export returns have surged.

Exports of cut and polished diamonds dropped 35% from $24.4 billion in financial year 2022 to $13.1 billion in the last fiscal, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative.

The share of unsold diamonds returned to India increased from 35% to 45.6% during this period. Net exports of cut and polished diamonds dropped 45% from $15.9 billion to $8.7 billion, reflecting a weak market and rising unsold inventory, the GTRI data stated.

A large stockpile of unprocessed rough diamonds is accumulating due to reduced orders and growing competition from lab-grown diamonds. Thousands of units have shut down, and many fear a 10–15% downturn in volume and value by 2030. Tragically, more than 60 workers in Gujarat's diamond sector "have taken their own lives", highlighting the severe financial and emotional strain, the report claimed.

India's lab-grown diamond exports tripled in value between 2019 and 2022, while export volumes rose 25% between April and October 2023, up from 15% year-on-year, according to industry data.

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Affordability

A recently released report by the Natural Diamond Council highlights a widening price gap between lab-grown and natural diamonds. Although the retail prices of lab-grown diamonds have also declined, the decrease has been less pronounced. "In some cases, the price of a 1.5-carat stone has fallen by over 74%."

One major reason for the price drop in lab-grown diamonds is the reduced cost of production. Bain & Co. estimated that between 2008 and 2018, the average production cost of a high-quality, lab-grown 1-carat stone plunged 90%.

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LGDs Sustainable?

Reports suggest that lab-grown diamonds are sustainable since they are created in a lab without the need for mining. However, according to the International Gemological Institute, lab-grown diamonds are not environmentally sustainable.

Fossil-fuel consumption plays a significant role in their production, making terms like "sustainable", "eco-friendly" or "green" inaccurate when referring to lab-grown diamonds. However, a few producers use wind, solar and hydroelectric power sources to manufacture what they claim to be "sustainable" lab-grown diamonds.

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