Days to General Election: 15
(Bloomberg) --
What’s Happening? The most eagerly awaited poll of the general election is imminent.
We're about to get a better sense of how real Boris Johnson's double-digit lead in the opinion polls actually is. YouGov's MRP poll will appear in the Times at about 10 p.m. on Wednesday.
Traders will be watching carefully. Back in 2017, the equivalent poll correctly predicted that Theresa May would lose her majority when other surveys showed her well ahead. What makes MRP special is that it uses a far bigger sample than its rivals and some funky math to give a seat-by-seat prediction, as Bloomberg's Robert Hutton explains here.
Of course, it's only one opinion poll. But it could influence the outcome: If it shows a race somewhere to be unexpectedly close, parties could change their target seats or people may be encouraged to vote tactically.
With the Conservatives enjoying an average 12 point lead in the last five opinion polls, Johnson's chances of getting his Brexit deal through the next Parliament looked to be secure. If MRP produces a surprise, all bets for what happens to Brexit are off.
Today’s Must-Reads
- Bloomberg’s Sam Unsted explains why, for U.K. homebuilders, the election is really all about Brexit.
- A group of 14 trade policy academics, think-tank specialists and industry advisers have written to the Telegraph to warn that Johnson’s “arbitrary” Brexit deadline will damage the U.K. economy.
- The social care crisis is the time bomb Britain can’t afford to ignore, according to Bloomberg Opinion’s Therese Raphael.
Brexit in Brief
Corbyn Attack | Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn today accused Johnson’s Conservatives of seeking to sell out the U.K.’s National Health Service in secret trade talks with the U.S. Corbyn released a 451-page document which he said showed the U.S. seeking “total market access” to the U.K. and suggested a no-deal Brexit is the preferred U.S. option because “there would be all to play for.”
Carmakers Plea | British automakers warned that the next U.K. government needs to deliver a “world-beating Brexit trade deal” to bolster their competitiveness and safeguard jobs following the nation’s exit from the EU.
SNP Campaign | The Scottish National Party launched its manifesto at an event in Glasgow today — the last major party to do so — with a pledge to “protect Scotland from Boris Johnson” and a warning that there is “much worse to come” if Brexit goes ahead.
Here Today, Cone Tomorrow | The U.K. government spent £200,000 putting out cones on the M20 to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, only to take them away again a day later, Politics Home reports.
Want to keep up with Brexit?
You can follow us @Brexit on Twitter, and listen to Bloomberg Westminster every weekday.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
POPULAR