Budget 2025 Expectations: Focus On Defence, Aerospace Sector; Tax Incentives For Power Sector

Ahead of the Budget announcements on Saturday, stay updated with key expectations from industry leaders and the public.

The Union Budget will be presented by Nirmala Sitharaman on Feb. 1. (Photo source: Envato)

As India prepares for the 2025 Union Budget, JPMorgan warns investors to "brace for volatility" while remaining overweight on financials, industrials, healthcare, real estate, consumer goods, and cement. With expectations of reduced emphasis on capital expenditure in the upcoming budget, CLSA Strategist Vikash Kumar Jain believes "Modi stocks" still need further correction from their elevated valuations.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Affordable Financing For Infrastructure 

Kavita Shirvaikar, Managing Director of Patel Engineering Ltd., stated, key priorities for India’s infrastructure sector—include increased project funding, stronger central support to states for timely execution, and widespread adopting surety bonds over bank guarantees for bid, performance, and advance securities by government agencies and PSUs to ease financial limits and enable efficient project delivery.

"Granting special status to major projects could further improve access to affordable financing ensuring timely and successful execution. Establishing a dedicated green energy fund to support hydropower and other sustainable projects would drive India’s sustainable energy transition," Shirvaikar said.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Focus On Defence And Aerospace Sector

“We anticipate that Budget for fiscal 2025-26 will be pivotal in accelerating India’s journey towards self-reliance in the defence and aerospace sectors, both of which are on the brink of significant growth," said Amey Belorkar, fund manager - defence and aerospace venture fund, IDBI Capital Markets and Securities Ltd.

"The government’s emphasis on Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India is likely to be bolstered by strategic budgetary allocations that promote innovation, support MSMEs, and streamline defence procurement processes, " he said.

Belorkar highlighted that a particular focus on emerging areas such as unmanned aerial systems (UAS), advanced materials, cyber defence, and space technology could unlock substantial opportunities for private capital engagement.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Tax Incentives For Power Sector

Amit Jain, CEO and country manager, ENGIE India remains optimistic about the potential introduction of long-term tax incentives. "Expedited land acquisition processes and streamlined approval mechanisms for large-scale renewable energy initiatives are equally crucial to accelerate India’s progress toward its net-zero commitments," he said

"A clear roadmap for energy storage solutions and grid modernization will be essential in addressing intermittency and scalability challenges, ensuring the resilience and sustainability of the renewable energy ecosystem," he said.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Innovative Funding Models And Asset-Light Strategies

I would like to see the budget introduce innovative funding models and asset-light strategies that promote corporate governance and financial transparency, said Tarun Singh, founder and Managing Director of Highbrow Securities.

"Enhancing credit accessibility and simplifying IPO listing procedures will offer vital support. Furthermore, by introducing targeted interest subvention schemes, the government can significantly reduce operational costs. Together, these measures will strengthen the global competitiveness of our MSMEs, ensuring they continue to thrive and grow," he said.

"Policy incentives, including tax reliefs, sector-specific subsidies, and support for digital transformation, will be crucial in driving sustainable growth and long-term value creation. Considering the current economic landscape, I think the budget should also focus on infrastructure development, job creation, and ease of doing business," he further shared.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Enhanced Affordability For Real Estate

The real estate sector looks forward to policy initiatives and reforms that can drive growth, enhance affordability, and address long-standing industry challenges, said Prashant Sharma, President, NAREDCO Maharashtra.

"Granting industry status to the real estate sector remains a key demand. This will enable easier access to institutional funding at lower interest rates, particularly for mid-segment and affordable housing projects," he said.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Infrastructure Spending And Job Creation

Amar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President, Research, Angel One, shared that this year's budget focus is likely to be boosting consumption, thrust in infrastructure spending and job creation.

"Also, the middle class & the income tax payees are hopeful of some form of tax rebate which could ease their financial situation. Agriculture is also likely to be a key focus area as this sector accounts less than 20% of GDP, but still accounts for almost 55%-60% livelihood," Singh said.

"Given the current domestic Economic slowdown, record FII outflow, Rupee hitting record lows along with global macros & the Trump factor, makes it all the more an interesting budget to watch out for," he said.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Stock Market To Be Open On Feb.1

The National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the BSE will both remain open on Saturday, Feb. 1 on account of the Budget Day. Both the exchanges have confirmed the news in separate circulars.

The NSE and BSE are typically closed on weekends. However, following the precedent set in previous years, such as in 2020 and 2015, the exchanges have decided to remain open on Budget Day, when Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget 2025.

"On account of the presentation of the Union Budget, Exchange shall be conducting live trading session on February 01, 2025, as per the standard market timings," the NSE said in its circular.

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: Themes To Play Out On Capex Boost

Sanjeev Hota, head of research at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said capex outlay may not increase on an absolute basis, but the spend will improve significantly. The previous year had started with an optimistic budget for capital expenditure. But the capex was watered down by the general elections and other major spends.

There are a few sectors and themes that are set to go big with incoming support of increased capex. One of these sectors is manufacturing, and Hota is confident this is a big theme that will play out.

"In government capex, around 50% goes to roads and railways. So, you see good allocation coming in for the railways this time," said Hota. The spotlight is on these sectors as allocation is expected to be higher than last year.

Read story here.

Also Read: Budget 2025: Key Macro Numbers Investors Will Watch | In Charts

Budget 2025 Expectations Live: JPMorgan Sees Market Volatility

As India prepares for the 2025 Union Budget, JPMorgan warns investors to "brace for volatility" while remaining overweight on financials, industrials, healthcare, real estate, consumer goods, and cement. The brokerage sees further risk repricing in the options market and recommends hedging strategies like Nifty collars and straddles.

With fiscal tightening expected due to lower deficit targets and sluggish tax revenues, JPMorgan anticipates a continued focus on infrastructure and public investment, particularly in railways, housing, urban development, and defence. Fiscal consolidation is likely to persist, with the central fiscal deficit projected at 4.8% of GDP.

JPMorgan also sees a higher probability of an interest rate cut in the RBI’s Feb. 7 meeting, as improved liquidity and easing food inflation support consumption recovery.

Read story here.

Also Read: Volatility Clouds Over Infra Stocks As India's Capex Thrust Likely To Ebb

Budget 2025 Expectation Live: CLSA Positive On FMCG

With expectations of reduced emphasis on capital expenditure in the upcoming budget, CLSA Strategist Vikash Kumar Jain believes "Modi stocks" still need further correction from their elevated valuations.

However, he remains bullish on staple FMCG stocks. Jain advised investors to temper their expectations, forecasting minimal returns from the Nifty this year. Speaking to NDTV Profit, he noted that the market’s normalization process could take longer amid high expectations.

"A large part of the last two years, India was growing higher than potential average growth," he noted. In the long-term, this is not a huge alarm bell but capex stocks can be a little disappointing, according to Jain.

Read story here.

Budget 2025 Expectation Live: Incentives For Commercial Fleet Electrification

The Union Budget 2025 should have targeted incentives for commercial fleet electrification, reduced financing costs for EV logistics operators, and a more structured GST framework for EV components, as they can significantly accelerate adoption, said Maxson Lewis, founder and chief executive officer of Magenta Mobility.

"Additionally, policy support for localised battery recycling and supply chain development will strengthen India’s self-reliance in the EV ecosystem. With the right measures, the Budget can drive large-scale EV adoption in logistics, making clean mobility more accessible, efficient, and economically viable," he said.

Budget 2025 Live: All-Party Meet Ahead Of Parliament Session

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is chairing the customary meeting of floor leaders of all political parties, ahead of the Budget session of Parliament. The session commences on Friday with the address of the president to the joint sitting of the two Houses.

The Union Budget will be presented on Feb. 1. The first leg of the session will conclude on Feb. 13 and the second leg will continue from March 10. The session will conclude on April 4.

Read more here.

Also Read: Stock Market Live: Nifty, Sensex Extend Gains To Third Day As BEL & Power Grid Rise

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