Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is on a collision course with President Donald Trump, who is increasingly looking at Kyiv's battle against Russia primarily through the lens of energy prices ahead of US midterm elections.
Trump sprung an announcement of an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on Zelenskyy, as the US leader pushes for him to stop bombing Russian oil refineries and defends a controversial deal with Vladimir Putin on diesel exports.
After Trump posted on social media about the ceasefire, Zelenskyy said he is willing to accept it, but only if Russia does too - his long-standing position - making clear his significant doubts about that prospect.
"Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia support it as well," Zelenskyy said on social media, adding that he is "awaiting details" from the US on the deal.
| But as Ukraine continues to respond to Russia's invasion with its own attacks on refineries, Zelenskyy increasingly risks running afoul of Trump. That poses a hazard for Kyiv as it still relies on US weapon purchases that are financed by other NATO allies and on intelligence-sharing from Washington. Ukraine is also strapped for cash ahead of the fifth winter of the war. A day before his ceasefire announcement - the second in as many months - Trump lashed out at Zelenskyy, suggesting he should consider stepping aside as Ukraine's president. On Friday, after Trump reached the diesel export deal with Putin, Ukrainian negotiators cut short their talks in Miami with US envoys, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. In the meeting, US negotiators, led by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff, told Ukrainian officials that the US was a strong partner, providing munitions and intelligence, and so Ukraine shouldn't take actions that hurt American consumers like striking refineries, according to one of the people. That was perceived as an implied threat from the US to cut off intelligence to Kyiv, several of the people said. The Financial Times was first to report about the intelligence cutoff remark at the Miami meeting. ALSO READ | Trump Says Ukraine Needs New Leader Who Can Deal With Putin European officials present at the meeting received no prior notification from the US on the imminent diesel deal with Moscow, one person said. Ahead of US midterms in November, the Trump administration is scrambling to bring down soaring fuel prices, which have raised costs for farmers and truckers. But the deal with Russia, which would release Russian diesel to global markets, risks sparking geopolitical backlash without boosting supply enough to materially lower prices. It's also triggered significant bipartisan pushback in the US. Seven US senators - four Republicans and three Democrats - released a statement pointing out that Congress had banned imports of Russian energy since 2022, and that the deal was illegal. Read More: Russia Suffered 50,000 Casualties Last Month, NATO Official Says After years of devastating Russian aerial barrages, Ukraine has developed an increasingly effective strategy of hitting sensitive parts of the Kremlin's economy with long-range drones in an effort to undermine Putin's ability to finance the war. The attacks forced the Kremlin to pay oil companies steep subsidies to supply road fuels to the domestic market and ban diesel exports, which now also raises questions about Moscow's ability to fulfill its deal with Trump. On Saturday, Russia partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 metric tons of fuel to reach international markets. Tensions between the US president and Zelenskyy have come and gone since Trump returned to the White House with a pledge to quickly end the war in Ukraine. Last year, the two leaders argued face to face in the Oval Office during an extraordinary public blowup over their clashing perspectives on the war, leading Washington to temporarily suspend military aid and intelligence sharing in the aftermath. The rupture proved short-lived and the US cooperation resumed. German Leader Merz Unveils €1.35 Billion Ukraine Aid On Surprise Visit to Kyiv Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's president, speaks during a news conference after signing defence agreements in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Sunday, Oct. 4. This time, Trump's verbal attacks may make the situation more dangerous to Kyiv politically, according to Fiona Hill, who served as the top Russia adviser on the US National Security Council during President Trump's first term and is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "If he starts to actively play a role in Ukrainian politics," she said, "and in this way essentially engaging in political subversion, he can do a lot more damage." While the Ukrainian leader has previously shown he could push back against Trump and withstand the immediate fallout, another confrontation could prove more dangerous now as his nation heads into its fifth winter of war. Ukraine is chronically short of US-made interceptors for Patriot air defense systems, its only effective way to down ballistic missiles. The country's military remains dependent on other American weapons and intelligence even as European allies shoulder much of the cost of military assistance. It's possible that the US may stop sharing some of the real-time intelligence Ukraine relies on for the oil refinery strikes, said Jennifer Kavanaugh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities think tank in Washington. The chances that the US cuts Starlink satellite internet access for Ukraine, its key source of military communication, is quite small, she said. However, if the US stopped selling weapons through NATO's Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List program, the implications could be more significant since Europe can't backfill these supplies. Russia, meanwhile, has shown no sign of easing its attacks on Ukraine. Moscow used about 1,450 guided aerial bombs, 75 missiles of various types and more than 1,640 attack drones against Ukraine this week alone, about 60% of them jet-powered, Zelenskyy said on X Sunday. Ukraine is in talks with European partners for additional air-defense systems and munitions for combat aircraft to counter faster jet-powered drones, he said. ALSO READ | Russia, Ukraine Agree To 'Energy Ceasefire', Says Donald Trump The military pressure comes alongside looming financial challenges. Russian attacks have disrupted Black Sea exports, threatening an important source of revenue, while the International Monetary Fund estimates Ukraine faces a funding gap of more than $30 billion in 2027. Ukraine's parliament is due to consider a broad package of legislation this week that Kyiv urgently needs to pass to secure further financing from the European Union and the IMF. The measures include closing tax loopholes and boosting scrutiny over politically exposed persons, proposals unpopular with both the general population and elites. Meanwhile, Russian officials still have little hope that Trump can deliver a deal to end the war on Putin-favorable terms any time soon, people close to the Kremlin said. Moscow was also taken aback by the force of the US president's criticism of Zelenskyy, other people close to the Kremlin said. Trump's rudeness towards Zelenskyy won't help unless the US cuts intelligence sharing and arms sales to Ukraine, according to one of them. "Trump? He never changes his position, as we know all too well," Dmitry Medvedev, Russia's ex-president and the deputy head of the country's Security Council said on his account on the state-backed Max social network. "Only our guys, ballistic missiles and Geran drones are bringing victory closer." |
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