The Gulf countries, with Iran bombing most of them over the weekend, are looking at more than the imminent damage to their vital infrastructure: it is their reputation of being stable, safe havens for investments as well as tourism amid the chaos of the Middle East that is at stake and is being dented severely.
Iran has not hesitated even for a minute. Soon after the United States attacked, Tehran reciprocated with attacks on the Gulf countries without missing a beat, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and some others.
Tehran has maintained that it was targeting the US bases in these regions, but on the ground, the energy infrastructure, residential areas, airports, and power grids. Desalination plants and more vital infrastructure have been hit.
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The latest one of these attacks was reported Monday afternoon, when Iranian strikes hit Saudi Aramco's oldest and most complex refinery that has a combined processing capacity of 5,50,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensates. The refinery has been shut down for now.
The experts feel that there are two sides to these attacks on Gulf countries.
The Physical threat
One obviously is the “real nightmare scenario” of their most vital infrastructure, including power grids and sanitation plants, getting hit.
“Without air conditioning and water desalination, the scorching hot and bone-dry Gulf countries are essentially uninhabitable,” feels Monica Marks, a professor of Middle East politics at New York University Abu Dhabi, as she spoke to Al Jazeera. She added that without energy infrastructure, these Gulf nations were unprofitable. “Gulf states will take whatever steos they deem will least jeopardise these interests."
However, some people feel that the physical threat is not the bigger threat. What is at stake is the reputation of these Gulf nations.
The Reputational Threat
Rob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer at King's College London, agreed that the more serious threat was reputational for these nations, while he talked to Al Jazeera. While the physical damages will be taken care of in due time, he argued, the lasting damage will be to their reputation as the “soft powers”.
“The lasting damage would be to the Gulf states' soft power-their brand as stable, predictable havens for investment and tourism in an otherwise turbulent region,” Pinfold was quoted as saying. He added that these strikes hit and damage the reputation at the heart.
Tried To prevent the war:
The Gulf nations were aware of the dangers and the threats that this war by the United States against Iran was about to bring with it. All these nations did try to prevent the war, both these analysts agree.
Marks told A Jazeera that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has seen this war coming in slow motion for weeks, if not months, “and has exerted a huge amount of effort to stop it.” She added that the concerned Iranian region would choose “fratricide before suicide”, taking its Gulf neighbours hostage rather than accepting defeat.
Pinfold asserted that the GCC states did not want this war and tried to lobby against it. “The dilemma for them now is whether to silently bear the strikes as they do nothing, or strike back and risk being seen as working with Israel,” It was a huge challenge for the GCC nations, he said. “At the end, the governments are responsive to popular opinion, and they want to be seen as protecting their people, and their country's sovereignty,” he said.
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