The global energy crisis triggered by the ongoing US-Iran conflict is set to worsen sharply in April, with the International Energy Agency warning of deeper oil and gas supply disruptions that could ripple across economies worldwide.
Speaking on the “In Good Company” podcast hosted by Nicolai Tangen, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned that supply losses next month could be “twice” as severe as those seen in March.
“The next month, April, will be much worse than March,” Birol said.
He noted that March supplies were partially supported by cargoes that had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz before hostilities escalated. “They are still coming to ports… In April, there is nothing,” he added.
Also Read:
According to Birol, the current disruption, estimated at 12 million barrels per day, far exceeds the scale of past crises such as the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, each of which saw losses of around 5 million barrels per day. “Today, we lost 12 million barrels per day, more than two of these oil crises put together,” he said.
He warned that alongside oil, significant losses in LNG and other critical commodities like petrochemicals and fertilizers could further strain global supply chains.
“We are heading towards a major, major disruption, and the biggest in history,” Birol said, adding that the impact would likely fuel inflation, slow economic growth—particularly in emerging markets—and could even lead to energy rationing in some countries.
The crisis, now in its fifth week, has also triggered acute shortages of refined fuels. “The biggest problem today is the lack of jet fuel and diesel,” Birol noted, flagging early signs of stress in Asia that could soon spread to Europe.
Also Read:
Meanwhile, the IEA is considering another coordinated release from strategic reserves. Earlier this month, its 32 member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels to cushion supply shocks.
“We are assessing the market on a daily, if not hourly, basis… If we think there is a need, we may well make a suggestion [to release more reserves],” Birol said, while cautioning that such measures would only “reduce the pain” rather than resolve the crisis.
“The cure is opening up the Strait of Hormuz… We are gaining some time, but I don't claim that this will be a solution,” he added.
Oil markets have already reacted sharply to the escalating conflict. Brent crude prices have surged more than 60% in March—the steepest monthly increase since the 1980s.
Amid the turmoil, US President Donald Trump has signalled a possible de-escalation, saying American forces could leave Iran “in two or three weeks,” prompting a temporary relief rally in global markets.
To mitigate the crisis, the IEA has recommended measures including reduced speed limits, increased remote working, and lower household energy consumption, as governments brace for prolonged volatility in global energy markets.
Essential Business Intelligence, Continuous LIVE TV, Sharp Market Insights, Practical Personal Finance Advice and Latest Stories — On NDTV Profit.