- The Strait of Hormuz sees controlled, selective traffic flow amid conflict and commerce tensions
- Iran enforces a navigation regime requiring vessel details, fees, and sometimes escorts for passage
- Countries like Japan, France, and Greece are negotiating with Iran to maintain tanker movements
The Strait of Hormuz is described in absolutes. It is either on the brink of closure or safely open for business. A recent field investigation by Citrini Research suggests that this binary thinking misses what is actually happening in the narrow channel through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil normally flows.
On the water, conflict and commerce are unfolding at the same time. Citrini Research notes that while the United States maintains a military posture aimed at deterring Iranian escalation, many of its allies are pursuing a quieter course. Countries including Japan, France and Greece are negotiating directly or indirectly with Tehran to keep their tankers moving. The result is not paralysis, but a controlled and selective flow of traffic.
Iran, according to the report, has established a de‑facto navigation regime between Qeshm and Larak islands. Vessels seeking passage provide detailed information on ownership, cargo and crew through intermediaries and pay transit fees. Approved ships receive an authorisation code and, in many cases, an escort. Those that do not comply wait. The aim is not to shut the strait, but to assert sovereignty over it.
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This approach mirrors Turkey's long-standing management of the Bosphorus: regulate, charge, and keep trade moving. For Tehran, it offers revenue and leverage while allowing Iran to present itself as a responsible manager of global commerce rather than a reckless disruptor. For much of the world, it is an uncomfortable but workable compromise.
A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be economically catastrophic, draining oil inventories at a pace the global system could not absorb. Citrini Research says that this is precisely why most energy‑importing nations are choosing negotiation over confrontation. Traffic patterns are already adapting, with fewer supertankers and more smaller vessels and gas carriers making the journey.
The implication for markets is stark. Even without a total shutdown, freight rates are likely to stay high and energy insecurity will linger. Yet this muddled, multipolar reality is still preferable to the alternative. The strait is not closed — it is being reshaped, quietly, by power exercised one ship at a time.
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