(Bloomberg) -- Geopolitics poses by far the biggest risk to markets and the global economy this year, with inflation no longer viewed as such a major threat, according to a client survey by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Some 54% of respondents picked geopolitics as the top risk in the survey, conducted as part of the bank's annual global strategy conference in London this month. The US election, which will be held on Nov. 5, came in second place with 17%.
The results underscore a major shift in global market sentiment as inflation — the main bugbear of recent years — slows back toward central banks' targets. While a resurgence remains a threat, the Goldman survey shows investors are increasingly concerned about how to position should wars in Europe and the Middle East spread, and with tensions rising between China and Taiwan.
“Geopolitical and political events represent key risks for portfolios, but they are particularly difficult to position for,” Goldman strategists including Guillaume Jaisson and Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note published Tuesday. “Timing and market impact tend to be hard to anticipate.”
Read more: A Pessimist's Guide to Global Economic Risks in 2024
Allocations to commodities, especially oil and gold, and the Swiss franc among currencies, have historically been “reliable diversifiers” in periods of prolonged geopolitical uncertainty, they said. Analysis by Goldman shows the Swiss franc has generally served as a better hedge against such risks than the yen, which tends to be more sensitive to interest-rate moves.
Investors are also bracing for the return of Donald Trump, who stepped closer to securing the Republican nomination with a win in Iowa's caucuses this week. A Trump presidency could bring sharp policy reversals in 2025, including steep import tariffs and a potential exit from NATO.
To be sure, any uptick in global turbulence could also have a knock-on effect on inflation, potentially reversing any slowdown. Lloyds Banking Group Plc Chief Executive Officer Charlie Nunn said he's watching to see if instability stirs a fresh spike in price growth for British households.
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