Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Four years later, Europe remains locked in its most destructive conflict since World War II. As the war formally enters its fifth year, there is no comprehensive ceasefire, no final political settlement, and little sign of a breakthrough despite renewed diplomatic activity. From mounting battlefield casualties to a worsening demographic collapse, here's where the conflict stands — and why peace remains distant.
Why A Peace Deal Remains Out Of Reach
Over the past year, the administration of US President Donald Trump has attempted to bring Russian and Ukrainian representatives into dialogue, including meetings in Abu Dhabi and follow-up talks in Geneva on February 17-18. American officials say Moscow has indicated openness to a deal. Russian representatives reportedly conveyed to US negotiators, including presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, that Kremlin is willing to explore an agreement.
However, these diplomatic overtures have coincided with continued Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure. Critics argue that Moscow is using negotiations to buy time while consolidating territorial gains in eastern Ukraine. The Geneva round reportedly ended after just two hours.
Core Disputes
The central sticking points remain unchanged:
1. Control over territory seized by Russia
2. Ukraine's future security guarantees
3. Moscow's political demands on Kyiv
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Russia insists Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donbas before full-scale negotiations can proceed. Kyiv rejects this as politically and militarily unacceptable. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has framed the war as existential.
“They have to stay with a democratic country which is fighting against one person. Because this person is a war. Putin is a war,” Zelenskyy told CNN.
On territorial concessions, he was unequivocal: “We can't just give him everything he wants. Because he wants to occupy us… We can't give them the country on a plate.”
Zelenskyy has indicated Kyiv could consider freezing combat along existing front lines temporarily, but he firmly rejected abandoning territory currently held by Ukrainian forces in Donetsk.
What Russia Wants Beyond Territory
Beyond land control, Moscow's stated objectives extend into Ukraine's political orientation. The Kremlin has demanded reductions in Ukraine's armed forces, an end to military cooperation with NATO countries, restrictions on long-range weapons deployment, recognition of the Russian language's status and restoration of Russian Orthodox Church influence. Analysts warn that even if such terms were accepted under international pressure, implementation would be fragile and politically destabilising within Ukraine.
Casualties: A War Of Attrition
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), total military casualties on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war may have reached as high as 1.8 million. The think-tank estimates that Russia has suffered around 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 killed, while Ukraine's military losses range between 500,000 and 600,000, with as many as 140,000 fatalities. Moscow has not updated its official casualty figures since January 2023. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said that 55,000 Ukrainian troops have been killed, while acknowledging that many remain unaccounted for. Civilian casualties continue to rise as well, with the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documenting 14,999 civilian deaths, 40,600 injuries, and at least 763 children killed since the start of the full-scale invasion. The UN warns the true numbers are likely higher. In 2025 alone, civilian casualties rose 31% compared to 2024.
Territorial Control: Limited Gains, Heavy Losses
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia now occupies approximately 19.4% of Ukrainian territory. Yet over the past year, Russian forces expanded their footprint by only 0.79%, underscoring the grinding nature of the conflict. Before February 2022, Russia controlled roughly 7% of Ukraine, including Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Economic & Aid Shifts
Data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows:
Foreign military assistance to Ukraine declined 13% in 2025 versus the 2022–2024 annual average. European military aid rose 67% last year, partially offsetting reduced U.S. transfers. Overall humanitarian and financial assistance fell 5%. Meanwhile, Russia faces mounting economic strain under Western sanctions, even as it sustains military production. The World Bank estimates Ukraine's reconstruction cost at $588 billion over the next decade.
Destruction of Infrastructure
The World Health Organization has verified:
- 2,800+ attacks on healthcare facilities
- 2,347 strikes specifically on health sites
- A nearly 20% rise in such incidents in 2025
The United Nations Mine Action Service reports nearly one-fifth of Ukraine is contaminated with mines or unexploded ordnance. Energy grid attacks have left millions without reliable power and heating.
The Demographic Crisis: A ‘Catastrophic' Collapse
Beyond the battlefield, Ukraine faces what experts describe as a demographic abyss.
Government data shows:
- 2024 births: 176,780
- 2024 deaths: 495,090
- Mortality outpaced births nearly 3:1
Before the invasion, Ukraine recorded about 273,000 births annually. The Total Fertility Rate has now fallen to 0.9–1.0 — less than half the 2.1 needed to maintain population stability.
Roughly 5.9 million Ukrainians have fled abroad, while 3.7 million are internally displaced. Even if fighting stops, Ukraine may lack the working-age population required for post-war reconstruction.
What 2026 Could Bring
Analysts suggest 2026 could mark a turning point — either toward structured negotiations or prolonged stalemate.
For Washington, a signed agreement could represent a diplomatic win. But a deal lacking domestic legitimacy in Ukraine risks collapse.
For Europe, pressure is rising to re-engage diplomatically with Moscow. Yet European capitals remain unwilling to reduce military support to Kyiv or rewrite the continent's security architecture.
For now, the conflict remains defined by entrenched positions–Moscow believes time favours it, Kyiv refuses territorial capitulation while as Western unity shows strain. As Zelenskyy put it:“If we give him all he wants, we will lose everything.”
Four years in, the war shows no clear end — only deepening human, economic and demographic costs.
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