There is a reason the term is called geopolitics. Geography matters enormously in war. Understanding the current Middle East conflict begins with understanding its geography. The region looks small on a map, but its physical layout is unusually complex. This complexity is centred on a handful of narrow maritime chokepoints that remain disproportionately important for global trade and energy markets.
Four Main Chokepoints
The Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Gibraltar are the choke points that link Asia, Europe, Africa and the Atlantic. Each is narrow, heavily trafficked and strategically exposed, but the Strait of Hormuz is the most critical.
Situated between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to the south, Hormuz is only about 29 nautical miles wide, with two-mile-wide inbound and outbound shipping lanes separated by a buffer. About 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and petroleum products-around one-fifth of global consumption and more than a quarter of seaborne oil trade-move through this corridor. Nearly 20% of the global LNG trade, led by Qatar, also relies on Hormuz.
Southwest of Hormuz lies the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, connecting the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea. It is the southern gateway to the Suez Canal, the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe. The Strait of Gibraltar, linking the Mediterranean to the Atlantic, completes the chain. It is the least volatile of the four, but still strategically important.
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The Alternatives
Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered broad uncertainty across the Gulf. Iran has attacked US bases in the region and blocked the Strait of Hormuz, while Qatar has temporarily halted LNG exports. For Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain, there are no meaningful alternatives.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited fallback options. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has a capacity of 5 million bpd, expandable to 7 million bpd in emergencies. That way, it can divert the supply from the Strait of Hormuz to Yanbu in the Red Sea. From Yanbu, it can move crude to the west via Suez or east via Bab el-Mandeb.
The UAE's Habshan-Fujairah pipeline has an operational capacity of about 1.5 million bpd. This allows Abu Dhabi crude to reach Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz entirely.
Taken together, the nations can send a maximum of 6.5-7 million bpd, far short of the nearly 20 million bpd that normally transits Hormuz.
Complicating matters further, Iran-backed Houthis have been active in the last few years in the Red Sea near Bab el-Mandeb. If the conflict prolongs or extends in the Red Sea, Saudi export routes via the Red Sea would also come under strain, creating acute shortages.
There's only one stable and reliable source from the Gulf in such times: Oman. Oman's ports lie outside the Strait of Hormuz, making it a perfect source for oil. It even has cordial relations with Iran and has not seen any damage in recent strikes by Iran. Recently, its port Salalah has seen a significant rise in container and tank traffic, as shippers proactively rerouted cargo away from more vulnerable Gulf ports. However, Oman is a small player compared to Saudi Arabia. It produces just 1 million bpd.
Prolongation Risks
President Trump has suggested military action may last weeks. However, he cannot afford a longer conflict because of the November midterm elections. On the other hand, Iran has threatened to close Hormuz many times before but has refrained, knowing the economic and retaliatory consequences it would bear. The risk of a prolonged conflict, however, is genuine. Past examples like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine don't give us any hopeful scenarios of shorter conflicts.
India's Exposure, Diversification Strategy
India is among the most exposed major economies. Roughly 50% of crude imports, about 60% of LNG, and nearly all LPG transit Hormuz. Petroleum reserves could cover only a couple of weeks.
In response, India has been actively diversifying. Over recent months, imports from Russia have declined under Western pressure, while supplies from Brazil, Nigeria, Angola, Congo, and the US have increased, and now Venezuela is the new one on the list. This diversification improves flexibility, but does not eliminate vulnerability, as non-Gulf barrels involve longer voyages and higher freight costs.
If the conflict continues and oil prices exceed $80 per barrel, import costs will rise, consumer inflation will increase, and the current account deficit will expand.
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Right now, the region is facing what could be its most serious shutdown yet. Whether this will be a short-lived shock or turn into something much longer really depends on what happens in the next few weeks. There are plenty of reasons for everyone to keep things under control, but risks of miscalculation are equally present. Because the world depends on the Strait of Hormuz, even brief disruptions impact energy markets, trade, inflation and economic growth.
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