Citi Rebuffs Calls For $100 Oil As Goldman Lifts Outlook On OPEC Cut

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A flare stack burns at the PCK Schwedt oil refinery, formerly owned by Rosneft PJSC and now controlled by the German government, in Schwedt, Germany, on Monday, March 20, 2023. Germany's economy will probably shrink in the first quarter of the year, according to the ZEW institute's gauge of expectations, as concerns over risks in the banking sector add to headwinds from inflation, even as the rate should decline "significantly", the Bundesbank said. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Citigroup Inc.'s Ed Morse, the global head of commodities research, said the oil market would need a lot more uncertainty over supplies before prices could reach $100 a barrel.

“There is a scenario for $100 a barrel oil. But I don't think we're anywhere near that yet,” Morse said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. 

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His comments come as Sunday's surprise OPEC+ production cuts prompted some analysts to revive calls for $100 oil. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its forecast for Brent crude in 2024 to $100 a barrel from $97 after the supply cut and amid positive momentum for global demand. Brent rallied more than 8% on Monday to as high as $86.44.

Citi's Morse said that “significantly more” oil would need to be taken out of the market before prices would rally to $100, and that the supply disruption would need to take place in a situation with more uncertainty. 

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