CFTC Warns Prediction Markets To Reel In Risky Mention' Bets

The advisory is the regulator's latest attempt to reel in the exploding industry after it floated a proposal in June to crack down on bets related to war and terrorism. The new guidance, which doesn't carry the weight of an agency rule, applies to a niche corner of prediction markets, where users can place yes-or-no trades on future events like sports and politics. The bets on so-called mention markets involve trading on words or phrases people might say in speeches, earnings calls or post-game press conferences.

"These contract types present a heightened risk of manipulation because their settlement turns on the discrete conduct of a person that may be neither independently generated nor externally verifiable," the CFTC said in a release on Tuesday.

ALSO READ: Price Caps Not The Answer: Apollo Hospitals Eyes 100 Bps Cost Cut Amid Expansion

The guidance said access to scripts, prepared remarks, or unpublished content creates opportunities for trading advantages, noting that "makes individuals more susceptible to influence by others seeking to manipulate the outcome, whether through social engineering, inducements, or public pressure campaigns." 

Mention market wagers were at the center of a CFTC investigation into the trades of a White House teleprompter operator, who allegedly used insider knowledge to make more than $100,000 on Kalshi on what President Donald Trump would say in speeches. He agreed in August to pay over $172,000 to settle the regulator's claims without admitting to the CFTC's allegations.

The National Football League in July asked the CFTC to prohibit these types of wagers for sports, saying broadcast mentions and similar bets are easily manipulated by a single person. Major League Baseball also called on the CFTC to rein in wagers on words uttered during press conferences or post-game interviews.

The guidance outlines the limited circumstances where these types of trades are okay, including when there are safeguards in place to avoid potential manipulation, such as whether the individual at the center of the wager has any legal or professional obligations to deter influencing the outcome. Any exchange offering a mention market must also implement rules, surveillance and controls to detect and deter manipulation, the advisory stated.

The CFTC is fighting criticism that its embrace of federally-regulated prediction markets has allowed betting to thrive, even in states that ban gambling. The CFTC and prediction market platforms have argued the event contracts are financial derivatives that are fundamentally different from traditional gambling and should fall under the agency's remit. States have disputed that idea and sued the firms, alleging the platforms amount to illegal gambling operations.

ALSO READ: Brent Crude Falls To $99: Oil Prices Set For Longest Losing Streak In A Year As Saudi Pipeline Restarts

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have said they are opposed to insider trading and actively police the markets and send tips to law enforcement and federal regulators.