Ceasefire, Sanctions Relief, Nuclear Curbs: Why US-Iran Deal Is Anything But Simple

Ceasefire may be in place, but reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing sanctions and enforcing nuclear curbs remain fraught with uncertainty, experts warn.

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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the war effectively ended on Tuesday, Tehran time, when the agreement with the United States was finalised.
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The newly announced US-Iran agreement may have brought an end to active hostilities, but major questions remain over its implementation, particularly around sanctions relief, nuclear restrictions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, according to experts cited by Al Jazeera.

Christian Bueger, director of Safe Seas, a maritime security research network, cautioned that the agreement leaves several critical issues unresolved.

"It is definitely not as simple as it sounds. We now have a basic framework in place, but the major issues are still unresolved. And, perhaps most problematic, the conflict can flare up every single time one of the key issues is not resolved," Bueger told Al Jazeera.

A key challenge will be restoring confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil and commodity trade. Bueger said reopening the waterway would require swift action from multinational security forces.

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"So opening the Strait of Hormuz will not be easy. We will need the multinational military mission by UK and France to get there as soon as possible. But a real solution will not be possible without Iran and Oman agreeing to a new framework for transit in the long run," he said.

Bueger added that any future arrangement could involve some sort of service fees, certainly not tolls, that is clearly illegal, while warning that the presence of sea mines in the area remains a significant unresolved risk.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the war effectively ended on Tuesday, Tehran time, when the agreement with the United States was finalised. Speaking to diplomats in Tehran, Araghchi said the memorandum of understanding will formally come into force on Friday.

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Despite the breakthrough, major shipping companies remain cautious. Jotaro Tamura, chief executive of Japan's Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), told the Financial Times that vessel operators are unlikely to resume transits through the Strait of Hormuz until they see tangible improvements on the ground.

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“What will have to come in place is not just a simple agreement between the relevant countries, but it has to be material and translated into the real situations in the Strait of Hormuz, so that shipping lines can make themselves comfortable to go through," Tamura said.

Tamura noted that repeated false starts in attempts to reopen the waterway since the conflict began in late February have made the industry wary. "Given the experiences in the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that it may take at least a couple of weeks or if not a month," he said.

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