Bitcoin's much-discussed “Ramadan rally” may not be playing out in 2026 as it did in previous years. However, the volatility pattern that traders have tracked during the holy month still appears to be visible.
To be clear, Ramadan itself has no direct link to crypto markets. Bitcoin trades on global liquidity, macroeconomic trends, positioning and sentiment — not religious calendars.
Still, data from the past seven Ramadan periods between 2019 and 2025 shows a noticeable pattern. In six out of seven years, Bitcoin saw a sharp move early in the month, followed by choppy trading and then a weaker finish or pullback.
The main exception was 2020, when broader macro recovery trends dominated price action.
Importantly, the pattern was not that “Bitcoin always rises during Ramadan.” In several years, the cryptocurrency ended the period higher overall — but even then, prices often pulled back after peaking mid-month.
This makes it less of a directional trend and more of a timing pattern, marked by early volatility and later exhaustion.
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What's Different In 2026?
This year, the sequence has shifted. Instead of starting with a strong rally, Bitcoin opened Ramadan with choppy trade, followed by a sharp drop. A bounce attempt came only after that flush.
The shape — fast move, emotional swings and unstable recovery — looks familiar. But the initial weakness suggests this year's setup is less constructive than in stronger Ramadan periods.
On-Chain Signals: Mixed But Fragile
On-chain indicators present a mixed picture. The Binance Buying Power Index has fallen to levels previously associated with compressed or exhausted conditions. That can be seen as a contrarian positive, suggesting room for a short-term relief bounce if selling pressure fades.
However, network activity has remained weak for six consecutive months — a structural concern. Soft participation and demand can make any rally fragile.
Short-term holder realised losses are also still negative, even though the worst capitulation phase appears to have cooled. In simple terms, panic selling has slowed, but many recent buyers are still exiting at a loss. That typically signals base-building rather than the start of a strong uptrend.
A short-term bounce or choppy recovery remains possible, particularly if buying power stabilises. But the combination of weak demand and ongoing losses among short-term holders suggests upside may face heavy resistance.
In short, the narrative of a clear-cut Ramadan “rally” looks less convincing in 2026. However, the broader pattern of early volatility, sharp swings and uncertain follow-through remains in place.
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