Donald Trump Elected 45th U.S. President
Follow live results of the 2016 US election.
Thanks for joining our TOP Live blog on the U.S. Election.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Here are the key takeaways:
- Donald Trump has been elected the 45th president of the United States, and Republicans will retain control of both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. After a historic evening, here are some key takeaways:
- Trump won the presidency by sweeping through Rust Belt states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, seen headed into tonight as safely Democratic. He currently leads Clinton 276-218 in the electoral vote count, with some states still outstanding.
- Financial markets are recoiling from the news, with Europe's stock markets falling their most since June 27. S&P 500 futures are down 2.7 percent.
- After a grueling campaign, Trump pledged to unite the country and asked his opponents to work with him to heal the nation's divisions.
- We haven't heard yet from Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and don't expect to before tomorrow. But her campaign confirms she called Trump in the early morning to concede.
- Trump now must turn to the task of governance, assembling an Cabinet and administration before he is sworn in January 20.
Andre Tartar, EMEA, Economic Data Editor, Bloomberg News
Now that it's official, and as everyone's attention turns to the transition, here's a look at how Trump's mandate -- with an electoral vote haul likely to grow once the last remaining states are called -- compares to those of other recent first-term presidents.
Jonathan Stearns, EU Reporter, Bloomberg
European Parliament President Martin Schulzcongratulates Donald Trump on his U.S. presidential-election victory and calls for ‘rational’ American cooperation with Europe.
Schulz, a German Socialist, tells reporters in Brussels that “this is for sure a difficult moment” in European Union-U.S. relations. Schulz also says he expects Trump will act differently as American leader than he did as the Republican Party's candidate. “We have common interests and common responsibilities,” Schulz says.
Linly Lin, Bloomberg
Singapore prime minister extends his congratulations in a tweet to Trump.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
If Trump does what he said he’d do -- a shock to the global economy may be coming. That could come through a number of channels:
- Slower trade flows and weaker global productivity
- Weaker investment and consumption spending as the election clouds the outlook.
- Tighter financial conditions as markets shift to risk-off mode.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
“I promise you I will not let you down,” Trump says.
He adds: “While the campaign is over, our work on this movement is just beginning” and tells supporters they will be so proud of your president.
Marc Perrier, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Here's a look at the markets following Trump's win, including European assets:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
The Clinton campaign confirms that she called Trump to concede, per Bloomberg's Margaret Talev.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Trump talks foreign policy, saying he expects ‘great relations’ with other countries willing to work with the U.S. “We will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us,” he says.
In a message to world leaders, Trump says he will deal fairly with other people and other nations -- although always keep America's interests first.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Trump says he will use his business acumen to tap into the ‘tremendous potential of the country.’
“Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential,” Trump says, pledging to rebuild infrastructure and fix the inner cities.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
In an acknowledgement of the bitter campaign,Trump trying to strike a conciliatory note. Says reaching out to opponents for "guidance and help" so the nation can work together to unify.
Ours was not a campaign, but rather an incredible and great movement.Donald Trump, President-Elect, United States Of America
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
“This is a historic night,” Pence says. “The American people have spoken, and the American people have elected their new champion.”
Pence says he is honored and humbled to serve as the nation's next vice president, and that he is deeply grateful to the American people for placing their confidence in their team.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
CATCHUP:
- Donald Trump has been elected the next president of the United States, in a stunning upset fueled by a sweep through Rust Belt states thought to be a Democratic firewall.
- Hillary Clinton has called Trump to concede the race, CNN and NBC report. She is not expected to address supporters tonight.
- Trump currently holds a 276-218 electoral vote advantage.
- Trump is expected to address supporters shortly in New York.
Jodi Schneider, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
What we learned from the U.S. Senate races on Election Day:
- Republicans retained majority control of the Senate, with incumbents winning in key states -- including Marco Rubio in Florida, John McCain in Arizona, Roy Blunt in Missouri, Richard Burr in North Carolina, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.
- The one Democratic pickup was in Illinois, where Rep. Tammy Duckworth beat incumbent Mark Kirk.
- Another bright spot for Democrats was in Nevada, where Catherine Cortez Masto beat Republican Joe Heck to win the seat of Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid, who is retiring.
- The number of women in the Senate who'll serve in the next session will exceed the current record of 20. Newcomers will include Duckworth, Cortez Masto -- who will be the first Latina elected to the Senate -- and Kamala Harris of California.
- Though Senate Republicans had a tough map to defend, Democrats weren't able to overcome their slate of candidates who ran effective campaigns. And theTrump backlash Democrats anticipated didn't materialize for Senate candidates.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Arizona: Trump is Projected Winner in Arizona
- Would pick up 11 Electoral College votes
- Arizona was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Republican Donald Trump defeats Democrat Hillary Clinton in a come-from-behind victory that will reshape American politics and is shaking worldwide markets:
Read More Here: Trump Wins Presidency, Upsetting Clinton and Stunning Defectors
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Wisconsin: Trump is Projected Winner in Wisconsin
- Would pick up 10 Electoral College votes
- Wisconsin was considered “leaning Clinton” by RealClearPolitics
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
European Parliament President Martin Schulz is commenting. He says, in comments to ZDF TV:
- Trump Surely A `Challenge' for Europe
- European Union Will Be Able to Work With Trump
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga is speaking in Tokyo. He says:
- Seeing Rapid Speculative Moves in Forex
- Will Continue to Seek Proper Response From U.S. on TPP
- U.S. Alliance Is Cornerstone of Japan's Diplomacy
- To Take Necessary Measures if FX Volatility Continues
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
The Trump campaign apparently still isn't sure how to handle the rest of the evening. Trump aides are currently huddling now to discuss strategy, but the Republican nominee is planning to address supporters, Bloomberg's Kevin Cirilli reports.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
Hong Kong's Monetary Authority is commenting:
- Hong Kong Banking System Is Highly Liquid, HKMA Says
- Expects Market Volatility Will Continue in the Near Term
- Urges Public to Remain Vigilant and Manage Their Risks
- Says H.K. Banking System Well Prepared for Volatility
- Stands Ready Provide Liquidity Support in Case of Need
- Says Local Interbank Money Markets Operate Smoothly
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
China Will Work With New U.S. President, Foreign Ministry Says
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Donald Trump is now arriving at the midtown Hilton Hotel where his supporters have gathered, suggesting he's likely to give a speech tonight. Rudy Giuliani and Chris Christie were among those spotted in the motorcade arriving at the hotel, via video broadcast on CNN.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
As Asian markets shut or enter the home stretch on this, another extraordinary trading day, let's take a look at how they fared:
- The worst performer was Japan, with the Nikkei 225 and the Topix index sliding at least 4.5 percent as the yen found favor amid the flight to quality.
- New Zealand wasn't far behind, with the S&P/NZX 50 Index closing down the most since 2008 and the aftermath of Lehman's collapse - and this was long before the race was called for Trump.
- Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, or H shares, slid to their lowest point since August amid concern over what a Trump presidency means for Asia's largest economy and a country that has been a frequent target for the likely new president.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Alaska: Trump is Projected Winner in Alaska
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- Alaska was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Gold Fields Rises 8.1%, Most Since June, After Bullion Rises
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta is now addressing supporters at the Javits Center.
Podesta says the race remains "too close to call" and says the campaign will not have anything more to say tonight. "We'll have more to say tomorrow," he says, telling supporters to go get some sleep.
Podesta thanks supporters for their efforts. "We are so proud of you, and we are so proud of her," he says. "She has done an amazing job and she isn't done yet."
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Euro Stoxx 50 Index Futures Sink 4% at Open
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Maine: Clinton is Projected Winner in Maine
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes, Trump gets 1
- Maine was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
A look at Javits Center, home of Hillary Clinton's election night party:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Odds on the Fed hiking next month have plummeted to as low as 47 percent - that's from 82 percent at the end of trading in New York on Tuesday.
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Donald Trump is poised to pull off a huge electoral upset and become the 45th president of the United States, a repudiation of the political establishment that’s jolting financial markets even as it promises to reshape the nation’s priorities and America’s relationship with the world.
Read More: Trump Poised to Win Presidency in Huge Upset of Political System
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
Turkey President Chief Adviser Yigit Bulut has been commenting, here are some key headlines. He says:
- American People Slapped the Establishment
- Movement in Dollar Is `Totally Speculative'
- Cites `U.S.-Russia-Turkey Axis,' EU the Loser
- Clinton Was Close to Gulenist Organization
- Clinton Counted Enemies of Turkey in Mideast as Allies
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
A win in Pennsylvania all but cements a Trump victory. He now has 264 electoral votes to Clinton's 215, and is the strong favorite to win Arizona, whose 11 electoral votes would push him over the limit. He's also leading in Alaska, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Pennsylvania: Trump is Projected Winner in Pennsylvania
- Would pick up 20 Electoral College votes
- Pennsylvania was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
U.S. Treasuries have pared their gains quite considerably, with 10-year yields only down four basis points right now, after earlier sliding by as much as 14 bps.
The realization that Trump is likely to win this is sinking in and we're hearing that bond traders are taking the long-term view that potential stimulus from Trump would propel yields higher. A push for more fiscal stimulus could also give the Fed more impetus to tighten.
The non-partisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has estimated Trump's proposals would boost the nation’s debt by $5.3 trillion.
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Traders moved to price in easier monetary policy settings going forward as the prospect that Republican Donald Trump will win election as the 45th U.S. President roiled financial markets. Here's our Chart of the Hour:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
A quick look at the markets now that it's been confirmed the Republican Party will retain control of the Senate. Most moves seem pretty welded in place right now:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
If you're just joining us. Here's where we are:
- Polls have now closed in all 50 states, and Donald Trump is edging closer to securing the White House. There remain nine houses racing, and Hillary Clinton will likely need come-from-behind victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to have a chance at the White House.
- Trump has won 244 Electoral Votes, sweeping through the south and Midwest. He's likely to win Arizona and Alaska, although those races have not yet been called, bringing him within 12 votes of victory.
- Clinton has won 215 electoral votes, consolidating the Acela corridor and West Coast. She's currently trailing in rust belt states she must win, but leading in Minnesota, Maine, and New Hampshire.
- Markets are plunging worldwide on expectations that Trump will win the White House. We'll have reaction as markets begin to open across Europe.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Even oil -- which has been dominated by newsflow related to supply all year -- is falling on the prospect of a Trump victory. Both WTI and Brent are declining more than 2 percent, dragging the currencies of oil-producing nations down with them.
The Malaysian ringgit, Canadian dollar, the Aussie and offshore ruble are all down more than 0.7 percent right now.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
German Defense Minister Says Trump Victory Would Be `Shock'
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Japan's Nikkei 225 Falls 5.4% to 16,251.54 at Market Close
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
When you think the world's going to hell in a hand basket, you go for gold, and that's exactly what investors are doing today. Spot prices are maintaining an increase of about 4 percent as Europe wakes up, that's the biggest increase since the aftermath of Brexit.
This chief of the Perth Mint, which refines almost all of the gold output from one of the world's biggest producers of the metal, said in August a Trump win would stoke the sort of fear trade that benefits gold.
More Here: Trump as President Means Gold’s Going Higher, Mint Forecasts
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
At the top of the hour, we'll have our final poll closing of the night: Alaska. It's expected widely that Trump will prevail there, and while some Democrats have succeeded in Alaska's statewide races, Trump's strong performance tonight suggests an upset is highly unlikely.
After that, attention shifts back to the Rust Belt, where Clinton's chances continue to hinge on her ability to pull out Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. She's currently trailing in all three.
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Let's get a snapshot of the markets with Europe starting to wake up. It's dire for the Mexican peso and other high-yielding currencies. Stocks are also sliding across the board, while the havens are in hot demand:
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
Given all the talk about where US investors might be headed what about foreign investors who have long viewed US Treasuries as the gold standard of investments. Here is a snapshot of key foreign sovereign holders of USTs at the end of August:
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
The dollar plunged as Trump pulled ahead in critical battleground states in the presidential race, shocking foreign-exchange traders who had all but priced in a Clinton victory, write Bloomberg's Lananh Nguyen and Kevin Buckland.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Nevada: Clinton is Projected Winner in Nevada
- Would pick up 6 Electoral College votes
- Nevada was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Trump and his family monitored election results in a conference room on the 14th floor of Trump Tower, Bloomberg Politics reporter Jennifer Jacobs reports. A senior strategist told her staff was hugging and high-fiving as each state was called, and described the mood as euphoric.
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index-A weekly random-sample national survey asking Americans to rate the economy and their personal finances shows a higher percentage of Democrats at 53% view their prospects favorably than Republicans at 39%:
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Electoral map as it stands right now:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Futures on the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average just dropped more than 800 points.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
Japan's Topix Index Extends Drop to 5.4%; Nikkei 225 Falls 5.9%
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Lessons from Brexit? Why any market reaction we see today may not last. A nice Gadfly piece from Unison Advisors founder Nir Kaissar:
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
A snapshot of our Global Macro Movers monitor right now:
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- S&P 500 Futures Fall as Much as 5%, Limit Down
- China Bond Risk Rises 10 Basis Points, Sharpest Gain Since June
- Japan's Topix Index Extends Drop to 5%; Nikkei 225 Down 5.5%
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Here's the real concern for Team Clinton, via the Upshot (which now gives Trump a greater than 95 percent chance of winning the presidency) -- she must win three states where Trump is now favored, while also holding Minnesota and either New Hampshire or Nevada.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- Japan's Topix Index Extends Decline to 4.7%
- NASDAQ Index Futures Drop as Much as 5% to 4,558.50, Limit Down
Paula Dwyer, Bloomberg View Editor
If Trump wins Wisconsin, while Clinton takes Michigan and New Hampshire, it's 269-269.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Trump now has 244 electoral votes in his column, which represents a commanding lead. Still, the math for Clinton hasn't changed - she must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to retain a realistic chance.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Georgia: Trump is Projected Winner in Georgia
- Would pick up 16 Electoral College votes
- Georgia was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
The likelihood of further moves into negative rate territory by the ECB Have increased significantly since Tuesday's close given the EURO'S sharp rally:
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Iowa: Trump is Projected Winner in Iowa
- Would pick up 6 Electoral College votes
- Iowa was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
Aside from the Mexican peso and British pound, the market swings on U.S. election day are looking a lot like what happened after the U.K.’s surprise vote to leave the European Union, as this chart shows:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
A word of caution - U.S. equities are doubly volatile on the days after presidential elections compared with normal sessions. The S&P 500 Index sank 5 percent after Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008, but gained overall in the ensuing 12 months.
Take a look at the S&P 500's reaction back to 1984, when Reagan thrashed Walter Mondale, courtesy of Bloomberg's Oliver Renick:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Here's where we're at: if Hillary Clinton can dig out victories in Wisconsin and Michigan (where she's trailing) and Pennsylvania (where she holds a narrow lead), she has a shot.
A loss in any of the three would cement a Donald Trump victory. But simply holding what were thought to be Democratic strongholds won't be enough for Clinton -- she'll also need a victory in either New Hampshire or Nevada.
While current vote totals in both show her trailing, she's likely to pull off a win in at least one of those states.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Utah: Trump is Projected Winner in Utah
- Would pick up 6 Electoral College votes
- Utah was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index are currently down 4.6 percent, nearing the maximum 5 percent drop permitted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange before trading curbs are triggered.
The restrictions last came into force after Brexit and set a floor price for the contracts through the remainder of the overnight trading session. Trading volumes for the December contracts are about 20 times the average level for this time of day.
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Here's how the electoral map looks right now:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
CATCH UP:
- A series of West Coast victories provided some support for Hillary Clinton's electoral vote tally, but the Democratic nominee still faces increasingly long odds. She remains an underdog in two must-win states, Michigan and Wisconsin, while another - Pennsylvania - is too close to call.
- Trump has won 216 electoral votes from Florida, West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, and Montana.
- Clinton has won 209 electoral votes from Vermont, New York, Mass., Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Washington, Virginia, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Colorado and Illinois.
- Trump leads Wisconsin by 2.5 percent with nearly 64 percent of votes tallied. He leads in Michigan by 1.7 percent with 52 percent reporting.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The Mexican peso is taking the battering traders feared it would, sliding more than 12 percent -- the most since 2008 -- to a record low beyond 20 per dollar. Here's the Wednesday move as compared with the previous four sessions - it's mighty.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Ten-year U.S. Treasuries, the benchmark, are soaring the most since June 27 -- the aftermath of the Brexit vote.
Not only are they benefiting from the flight to quality that prospect of a Trump presidency spurs, but from the retreat in odds on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month.
Ten-year yields are down 12 basis points to 1.73 percent right now, with the probability of a Fed hike in December down more than 20 percentage points in the swaps market, to 63 percent.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Oregon: Clinton is Projected Winner in Oregon
- Would pick up 7 Electoral College votes
- Oregon was considered “leaning Clinton” by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
North Carolina: Trump is Projected Winner in North Carolina
- Would pick up 15 Electoral College votes
- North Carolina was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
- Tar Heel State had the second-closest presidential margin of victory in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections
- North Carolina was one of just two states that voted for Obama the first time and against him the second time
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Washington: Clinton is Projected Winner in Washington
- Would pick up 12 Electoral College votes
- Washington was considered a “likely Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Idaho: Trump is Projected Winner in Idaho
- Would pick up 4 Electoral College votes
- Idaho was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Hawaii: Clinton is Projected Winner in Hawaii
- Would pick up 4 Electoral College votes
- Hawaii was considered a “solid Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
California: Clinton is Projected Winner in California
- Would pick up 55 Electoral College votes
- California was considered a “solid Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor , Bloomberg
Fed December Rate Hike Odds Drop Below 50%, Swaps Data Shows
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
Since the Asian trading day has begun the fortunes of key currencies have shifted, so far, in very different directions:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Here's a quick snapshot of where some of the key assets are at with Trump now predicted to win Florida. That state was cited as pretty important for many investors, particularly in Asia.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Coming up at the top of the hour, a wave of West Coast states will finish voting. Clinton is expected to easily bank California's 55 electoral votes, along with Washington's 12 and Oregon's 7 votes.
Idaho's 4 electoral votes will end up in Trump's column. Still, all eyes remain on the competitive races unfolding in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The S&P 500 Index e-mini futures are at risk of hitting their 5 percent decline limit with this Florida result. Currently down 4.2%.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Florida: Trump is Projected Winner in Florida
- Would pick up 29 Electoral College votes
- Florida was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
- In the 2012 presidential election, Florida went for Obama by less than 1 percentage point
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
Here's the latest electoral map:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
There's a chance that Trump not only wins, but runs the table in the Rust Belt. According to the New York Time's Upshot's latest model, he's currently favored to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. That would deliver him 305 electoral votes -- far above the 270 he needs to win the presidency.
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
The Bloomberg broad commodity index is near a six-month low:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
- Markets are faltering, with S&P 500 futures down more than 4.25 percent. The race is now a question of whether Clinton can wrestle back what were thought to be Democratic strongholds.
- Trump has won 168 electoral votes from West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, and Montana.
- Clinton has won 131 electoral votes from from Vermont, New York, Mass., Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and Illinois.
- We're closely monitoring Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which have become must-win states for Clinton.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
India's Sensex Index Falls 4.9% in Pre-Market Trading
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
An overall look at the top markets right now via our Global Macro Movers monitor:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Commodities are being hit hard as the mounting odds of a Trump win boost the dollar against high-yielding currencies like the South African rand, Aussie dollar, the Loonie, and -- of course -- the Mexican peso:
- WTI oil is sliding, it's down 3.8 percent right now to $43.30 a barrel, set for its lowest close since mid-September.
- All the industrial metals are sliding in London, with nickel leading losses with a 3.7 percent drop.
- Even crop futures are sliding, with corn -- a key U.S. Agricultural product -- falling 1.8 percent.
- Precious metals are having a great day, however, as traders flee to the safety of gold. It's up 3.4 percent right now.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Colorado: Clinton is Projected Winner in Colorado
- Would pick up 9 Electoral College votes
- Colorado was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- WTI Crude Futures Extend Losses to More Than 4% in New York
- Japan's Topix Index Extends Decline to 4.7%
- USD/CAD Rises to Touch 1.35 for First Time in Eight Months
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Holding Virginia was absolutely necessary for Clinton to remain competitive in this race. Without the state's 13 electoral votes, she'd have nearly no pathway to the presidency. Once again, the DC suburbs delivered for Democrats -- after making them sweat it out.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
The loss of Ohio, which was considered a tossup for much of the campaign, is further evidence of the extent to which Donald Trump's message has resonated in the Midwest. That's a state where Barack Obama won twice, and Hillary Clinton has to hope those problems don't bleed into Michigan and Wisconsin.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Virginia: Clinton is Projected Winner in Virginia
- Would pick up 13 Electoral College votes
- Virginia was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- Nikkei 225 Singapore Futures Extend Drop to 4.6%
- S&P 500 Futures Extend Decline, Down 4.5%
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Ohio: Trump is Projected Winner in Ohio
- Would pick up 18 Electoral College votes
- Ohio was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The Mexican peso is down almost 10 percent, and is in record-low territory as the prospect of a late run of Clinton votes in Florida recedes.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
This much has crystallized: this is now a contest over whether Hillary Clinton can hold three states thought to be safely in the Democratic column -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
If Clinton is able to stave off Trump in these states, which feature both diverse cities and large swaths of white working class voters who have strongly backed Trump, she'll have a good chance at winning. Losing any of them, however, makes a Trump presidency almost certain.
Paula Dwyer, Bloomberg View Editor
Trump's strong lead is holding in North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio and Florida. Clinton's slim lead is holding in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. Wisconsin and Michigan could turn out to be decisive.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
It's a good day to be a goldbug.
Spot gold is up 2.9 percent ATM to $1,313.07 an ounce, its biggest gain since the day after the Brexit vote.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- U.S. Stock Futures Near Session Lows, S&P Futures Down 4%
- USD/JPY Extends Drop to 3.3%, Most Since June 24, to 101.71
- Treasuries Rise, 10-Year Yield Falls Most Since Brexit to 1.74%
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Missouri: Trump is Projected Winner in Missouri
- Would pick up 10 Electoral College votes
- Missouri was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
While we're seeing a pretty similar reaction in markets to the aftermath of the Brexit vote, investors may not be hit as hard this time as the U.K. experience -- which saw the result come in very much at odds with opinion polls -- spurred them to load up on the hedges for the election.
More Here: Brexit Scars Made Wall Street Masters Timid Election Bettors
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
CATCH UP: More than three dozen states have now finished voting, and Donald Trump is having a stronger than predicted night. Hillary Clinton is clinging to a narrow lead in the must-win state of Virginia, and trailing in two firewall states - Michigan and Wisconsin. Markets across the planet are tumbling as Trump's odds of victory are increasing.
- Trump has won 137 electoral votes from West Virginia, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Indiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, and Montana.
- Clinton has won 104 electoral votes from Vermont, New York, Mass., Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Connecticut, and Illinois.
- Utah, Nevada, and Iowa just closed their polls and remain too close to call. We're closely tracking Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and New Hampshire, which remain too close to call.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
New Mexico: Clinton is Projected Winner in New Mexico
- Would pick up 5 Electoral College votes
- New Mexico was considered a “toss up” by RealClearPolitics
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
As central banks prepare for a possible extended period of FX volatility take a look at their currency reserve war-chests:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Some standout market moves so far:
- The Mexican peso -- which weakens when Trump gains traction -- is sliding the most since 2008 and the aftermath of Lehman as the Republican candidate inches ahead in several key races.
- Stocks in South Korea and Hong Kong are leading losses. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks mainland Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong, is the second-best decliner.
- S&P 500 Index futures are sliding almost 3 percent, a move that would put the U.S. benchmark back at July levels if it comes to pass in New York trading Wednesday.
- The Korean won is the biggest decliner in Asia vs the dollar.
- When it comes to the havens, gold is leading gains among precious metals, surging the most since the first trading day after Brexit (June 24).
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Montana: Trump is Projected Winner in Montana
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- Montana was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Jodi Schneider, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
The third-party candidates in the presidential race could alter the outcome in some states. Former Governors Gary Johnson of New Mexico and William Weld of Massachusetts lead the Libertarian Party ticket, and have polled as high as 10 percent in some states.
Jill Stein of the Green Party had single-digit support nationally. And in Utah, independent candidate Evan McMullin was ahead of both Clinton and Trump in some recent polls in the state.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Here's the state of play in markets - two words: RISK OFF.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Hillary Clinton just took a slight lead in Virginia as the votes from the D.C. suburbs come in. This is similar to recent elections, where Fairfax and Loudon counties, home to huge, liberal populations are slow to report.
Paula Dwyer, Bloomberg View Editor
Trump has significant leads in Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
Trump himself is, of course, watching closely, according to his Twitter feed:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Coming up at the top of the hour are poll closings in Nevada, Iowa, Utah and Montana. The Clinton campaign has voiced confidence about Nevada thanks to a strong early vote, and its six electoral votes could prove crucial if Clinton takes an unexpected loss elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Utah and its high Mormon population provides the best short for third party candidate Evan McMullin to make a splash.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
This slide we're seeing in the Mexican peso is the steepest in eight years, people. The most since the aftermath of Lehman's collapse.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
S&P 500 Index futures are now down more than 3 percent.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The Mexican peso is really falling out of bed, this is Brexit-like behavior.
It's sliding almost 7 percent right now:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Clinton staffers are likely sweating the returns in Michigan, where with 18 percent of the votes tallied, Trump continues to hold a narrow lead. It's a state with lots of working class white voters, who have broken strongly for Trump.
If Clinton loses Michigan's 16 electoral votes, her pathway to the presidency becomes very difficult.
Paula Dwyer, Bloomberg View Editor
Now the New York Times Upshot prediction is Trump and Clinton tied with 269 electoral votes each.
Stephen Jonathan, FX/Economics Market Specialist, Bloomberg
At 9EST this morning an analysis of the FED shows that while a move in December seems likely the NEXT move is not expected until the end of next year:
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
December Fed Rate-Hike Odds Tumble to 68%, Swaps Market Shows.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
No surprise as Louisiana is put into Trump's column, bumping his electoral lead to 137-104. We're watching most closely to see if Clinton can, as expected, regain the lead in Virginia and maintain her lead in New Hampshire. A loss in either makes her math more tenuous through the rest of the map, but wins in both will allow Clinton HQ to breathe a sigh of relief.
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Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The market is clearly spooked by these numbers giving Trump a lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
These declines in riskier assets (stocks, Mexican peso, high-yielding FX) are starting to remind me of Brexit, while havens (gold, bonds, yen) are really surging:
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Louisiana: Trump is Projected Winner in Louisiana
- Would pick up 8 Electoral College votes
- Louisiana was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Prediction models are souring on Clinton with some early results trending in Trump's favor. The Upshot's forecast model now gives Clinton just a 58 percent chance to win, down from 85 percent before polls closed. She's held steadier in FiveThirtyEight's forecast - which only updates after states are called - with a 73 percent chance of winning the presidency.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- Oil in New York Extends Drop, Losing as Much as 3.7%
- USD/JPY Plunges as Much as 3% to 102.04
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Asian stocks are selling off with those U.S. index futures. Japan is out in front as the yen's surge gathers pace - the Topix index is down almost 3 percent. Taiwan and Hong Kong also taking it hard - benchmarks in those places sliding more than 2 percent.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- Spot Gold Rises Above $1,300/Oz
- Turkish Lira Weakens to New Record Low Against Dollar
- Topix Extends Drop to 2.6%; Nikkei 225 Down 2.6%
- S&P 500 Futures Drop 3.3%, FTSE 100 Contracts Down 2.5%
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
It's a clear havens vs high yielders split right now in the currency market as Trump edges in front in key races:
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- Dollar Falls as Much as 2% to 103.04 Yen, Most Since July
- Japan's Topix Extends Drop to 1.7%
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Look at that slide in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields as a wave of risk aversion sweeps over markets amid these Florida numbers. Yields are falling the most since July:
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Connecticut: Clinton is Projected Winner in Connecticut
- Would pick up 7 Electoral College votes
- Connecticut was considered “leaning Clinton” by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
While the markets are reacting to Trump opening a significant lead in Florida, it's worth noting that Clinton's firewall still hasn't eroded. She remains the favorite to win Virginia and New Hampshire, which means Trump would need to pull an upset somewhere else on the map.
Clinton remains competitive in North Carolina; a victory there could put the race out of reach for Trump. Still, if Trump is able to bank Florida's 29 electoral votes, his chances at a surprise win will increase significantly.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The Mexican peso is sliding the most since June 24 - you guessed it, that was the day after the Brexit vote.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
While the Mexican peso sells off as Trump appears to gain traction, traders are feeling to the ultimate haven - gold. Spot prices have surged as much as 1.6 percent to touch $1,295.45 an ounce, only the highest since November 7, interestingly.
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor, Bloomberg
The electoral map right now:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
CATCH UP: With polls in most American states now closed, the race remains tight. Markets seem concerned, with the Mexican peso -- seen as a Trump indicator -- falling as much as 4.6 percent, its steepest intraday slide since June. Here's where we're at:
- Donald Trump has won 129 electoral votes: Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Nebraska (4), Texas (38), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), Arkansas (6), and South Dakota (3)
- Hillary Clinton has won 97 electoral votes: Vermont (3), Illinois (20), New Jersey (14), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), D.C. (3), New York (29)
- A huge swath of states -- including crucial battlegrounds -- remain too close to call. The states we're watching most closely include Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20),Ohio (18), Iowa (6), and New Hampshire (4).
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
The Mexican peso -- dubbed the Trump barometer -- is tanking, it's fallen as much as 4.6 percent, that's its steepest intraday slide since June, to 19.1555 per dollar, its weakest level since November 4.
Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor, Bloomberg News
- Mexican Peso Drops More Than 3%, Past 19 Per Dollar
- Oil in New York Extends Declines, Drops as Much as 1.7%
- Dollar Extends Slide Against Yen, Drops 1.4%
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Asian stocks have turned red and S&P 500 Index futures are sliding along with the Mexican peso with Trump ahead in Florida.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Kansas: Trump is Projected Winner in Kansas
- Would pick up 6 Electoral College votes
- Kansas was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Arkansas: Trump is Projected Winner in Arkansas
- Would pick up 6 Electoral College votes
- Arkansas was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
North Dakota: Trump is Projected Winner in North Dakota
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- North Dakota was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Wyoming: Trump is Projected Winner in Wyoming
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- Wyoming was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
South Dakota: Trump is Projected Winner in South Dakota
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- South Dakota was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Texas: Trump is Projected Winner in Texas
- Would pick up 38 Electoral College votes
- Texas was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
New York: Clinton is Projected Winner in New York
- Would pick up 29 Electoral College votes
- New York was considered a “solid Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
It's no surprise Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives, thanks to advantageous gerrymandering that made the return of the speaker's gavel to Nancy Pelosi nearly impossible.
Still, it's worth watching how many seats Democrats can pick up. If the Republican advantage in the lower chamber takes a significant hit, House Speaker Paul Ryan could find it difficult to pursue his agenda without the support of Democrats or the always raucous Tea Party-inspired Freedom Caucus.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Coming up at the top of the hour is another wave of poll closings. That includes a pair of states leaning Democratic but where the Trump campaign pushed in the closing weeks of the campaign - Colorado, with 9 electoral votes, and Michigan, with 16 electoral votes.
Wisconsin (10 votes), Arizona (11), New Mexico (5), Texas (38), New York (29), Minnesota (10), Louisiana (8), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), and Wyoming (3) will also complete voting.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
A snapshot of where the markets are at. Very much risk-off right now with Florida looking good for Trump:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Chinese stock markets just opened and we're not seeing the gains that are being enjoyed by shares in Japan, Australia and South Korea.
The Hang Seng is down 0.1 percent in Hong Kong, as is the Shanghai Composite Index.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Asian markets are in full swing (it's about 10:40am in Tokyo) and traders are on tenterhooks, says Tony Farnham, a strategist at Patersons Securities in Sydney:
“It's ultra close at this stage and we are seeing the knee-jerk reactions in markets as the votes come in. Everyone's waiting for Florida, North Carolina and Arizona as those are the ones that are going to decide it all.”'
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Florida remains completely puzzling, with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton within 0.1% of each other with over 90% of the vote in. North Carolina and Virginia are mirror images of one another: Democratic areas have under-reported in Virginia, and significant Republican areas are still outstanding in North Carolina.
Jodi Schneider, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Of the two big chances the Democrats had for a Senate seat pickup in declared races so far tonight -- in Indiana with a Republican retiring and in Illinois with a vulnerable Republican incumbent -- they picked up one Seat, in Illinois. Here's what the electoral map looks like right now for the Senate races:
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Gold -- which surged last week on FBI letter mark 1 -- has settled into an uneasy little changed pattern as investors wait for a big, in-play state like Florida to be called.
Take a look at the two-day chart for spot prices:
Paula Dwyer, Bloomberg View Editor
Clinton could also lose Iowa and New Hampshire if she picks up other states, such as Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, that are moving left. Tonight, Arizona (where polls close at 9 pm) and Georgia (still too close to call), both usually red states, could surprise us by joining the leftward-drifting ones. If not tonight, it could happen in 2020.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Bloomberg's Jennifer Epstein reports that Hillary and Bill Clinton are watching the results come in from a private suite at the Javits Center with their daughter Chelsea. Clinton and her team spent about 35 minutes polishing her speech for later tonight.
And for culinary fans, the staff of the Democratic nominee is noshing on a buffet of salmon, roasted carrots, vegan pizza, fries, macaroons, and vegan crème brulee, according to a Clinton aide.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
Here's a chart of the S&P 500 Index futures. The perforated line marks the start of Wednesday trading. Unlike the Mexican peso, the yen and gold, these contracts climbed at the outset and have stayed up even as the early results and predictions whipsawed markets, particularly FX:
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Alabama: Trump is Projected Winner in Alabama
- Would pick up 9 Electoral College votes
- Alabama was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Coming up at 8:30, the polls close in just one state: Arkansas. The state is and its 6 electoral votes are almost certainly going to be called for Trump.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
While the FX and commodity markets are mega-volatile right now, U.S. index futures have remained solidly up almost since they opened for Wednesday. S&P 500 Index e-mini futures are rising about 0.4 to 0.5 percent, even as these early Florida results put Trump in front.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
CATCH UP: After a wave of poll closings at 8 p.m., the map has filled in considerably and Hillary Clinton has pulled into Electoral College lead. But there have still been no upsets on the night, with crucial battlegrounds like North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania still too close to call.
- Donald Trump has won 57 electoral votes: Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5), Oklahoma (7), Tennessee (11), Mississippi (6), and South Carolina (9)
- Hillary Clinton has won 68 electoral votes: Vermont (3), Illinois (20), New Jersey (14), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), and D.C. (3)
- A huge swath of states remain too close to call: New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), Alabama, Connecticut (7), Maine (4), and Missouri (10)
Paula Dwyer, Bloomberg View Editor
Big picture at 8:10 pm: Polls have closed in five states that really matter -- Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire -- and all are too close to call.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Delaware: Clinton is Projected Winner in Delaware
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- Delaware was considered a “likely Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Tennessee: Trump is Projected Winner in Tennessee
- Would pick up 11 Electoral College votes
- Tennessee was considered a “likely Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Mississippi: Trump is Projected Winner in Mississippi
- Would pick up 6 Electoral College votes
- Mississippi was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Massachusetts: Clinton is Projected Winner in Massachusetts
- Would pick up 11 Electoral College votes
- Massachusetts was considered a “solid Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Rhode Island: Clinton is Projected Winner in Rhode Island
- Would pick up 4 Electoral College votes
- Rhode Island was considered a “likely Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
District of Columbia: Clinton is Projected Winner in District of Columbia
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Oklahoma: Trump is Projected Winner in Oklahoma
- Would pick up 7 Electoral College votes
- Oklahoma was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Illinois: Clinton is Projected Winner in Illinois
- Would pick up 20 Electoral College votes
- Illinois was considered a “likely Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
New Jersey: Clinton is Projected Winner in New Jersey
- Would pick up 14 Electoral College votes
- New Jersey was considered a “likely Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
Maryland: Clinton is Projected Winner in Maryland
- Would pick up 10 Electoral College votes
- Maryland was considered a “solid Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
So far, the election is going according to script -- and we don't have a ton of insight into how things will shake out.
Trump still must run the table with states like Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada, which is a steep hill to climb. Clinton's currently leading in both Florida and North Carolina, emphasizing the tough math Trump faces.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
Coming up at the top of the hour, a wave of states close their polls: Florida (29 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (20), New Hampshire (4), Maine (4), Illinois (20), New Jersey (14), Massachusetts (11), Tennessee (11), Maryland (10), Missouri (10), Alabama (9), Connecticut (7), Oklahoma (7), Mississippi (6), Rhode Island (4), the District of Columbia (3), and Delaware (3).
Most of those states are non-competitive and will be called quickly, but the election will hinge on results from battlegrounds like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor, Bloomberg
This two-day chart of the Mexican peso gives you a good idea of how jittery markets are as traders digest the early results. The currency, known as the Trump barometer, is currently down about 0.3 percent, but swinging around A LOT.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor, Bloomberg News
South Carolina: Trump is Projected Winner in South Carolina
- Would pick up 9 Electoral College votes
- South Carolina was considered “leaning Trump” by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter, Bloomberg
One reason forecasters are so unsure about who will prevail tonight is the possibility the polls -- which show Clinton with a small but steady lead -- could be misjudging the composition of the electorate. Here's FiveThirtyEight's look at how dramatically results could shift within the normal polling margin of error:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Democrats are excited about some of the early returns from Florida, with Hillary Clinton outperforming President Obama - who narrowly won the state - in Democratic urban centers. Dan Pfeiffer, the former White House communications director, tweeted that if the current margins hold, “Florida is coming off the board early and the race will be over quickly.”
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Pausing to catch our breath, here's where were at so far in the presidential race:
TRUMP - 24 ELECTORAL VOTES
Indiana (11), Kentucky (8), West Virginia (5)
CLINTON - 3 ELECTORAL VOTES
Vermont (3)
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), South Carolina (9), Georgia (16), Florida (29)
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
CATCH UP: The polls have now closed West Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio.
- Donald Trump has been projected the winner of West Virginia, adding 5 electoral votes. He now has 24 in his column.
- Hillary Clinton has only one state called on her behalf: Vermont, garnering her 3 electoral votes.
- The races remain tight in Florida and North Carolina. Donald Trump likely needs to win both states to have a shot at winning the presidency.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
It's a mixed picture in markets as investors try to keep up and make sense of the results that we're seeing:
- The Mexican peso is basically little changed
- S&P 500 Index futures are up a tad, with Asian stocks
- Gold is also steady, but the yen is edging higher
- Ten-year U.S. Treasuries are climbing
Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor
Portman Wins Senate Race in Ohio; Republicans Hold Seat
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor
West Virginia: Trump is Projected Winner in West Virginia
- Would pick up 5 Electoral College votes
- West Virginia was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Republican operatives say they're excited by early return numbers in battleground states. In a conference call earlier this morning, Party leaders say they led early-ballot returns in Colorado, improved their margins in Florida relative to 2012, and are outpacing Mitt Romney's winning performance in North Carolina. Trump spokesman Jason Miller said his candidate has “multiple paths to victory, and we feel our trajectory is very good,” according to Bloomberg's Terrence Dopp.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Coming up: Polls are closing in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia at 7:30 p.m. West Virginia will likely be called quickly for Trump, but Ohio and North Carolina are pivotal swing states that amount to must-wins for Trump to remain competitive.
Jodi Schneider, TOP Editor
So how late could tonight's vote-counting go? History has had some very late -- or into the wee hours -- balloting, with the famous example of Woodrow Wilson in November 1916 turning in for the night thinking he had lost and waking up to a gift from voters west of the Mississippi River and winning re-election.
Yet commentators are saying that's unlikely this time -- as the big battle-ground states of Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and North Carolina -- are in the east. Conservative commentator Erick Erickson last week said because California doesn't really matter this time, the race could be announced by 9:05 p.m., Eastern time.
Jodi Schneider, TOP Editor
Several other important Senate races we're watching this evening are in the Eastern time zone and should provide an early indication of whether Democrats are in a position to regain the majority. They include contests in Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
The election results are likely to land largely in the Asian trading day. Here’s a rundown of what to watch, when, as the vote count comes in. All times are EST.
7 p.m.: As voting in the first round of states closes, equity trading in Japan and South Korea starts. Some Asian emerging-market currencies -- like the Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit -- begin trading.
8 p.m.: As voting in Florida, Pennsylvania and 15 other states closes, stock markets in Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore open. Crop futures start trading for Wednesday, along with contracts on the FTSE 100 Index. The London Metal Exchange also opens.
8:30 p.m.: Markets in Hong Kong and mainland China get going for Wednesday, as voting in Arkansas ends.
10:30 p.m.: India’s equity market opens - 30 minutes after voting in Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah closes, and half an hour before six states including California shut.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
CATCH UP: The polls have now closed in Georgia, Indiana, the western half of Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and most of Florida.
- Donald Trump has been projected to win Kentucky and netting him 19 electoral votes.
- Hillary Clinton has been projected the winner of Vermont, earning her 3 electoral votes.
- Networks have still not called South Carolina, Georgia, or Virginia.
- Polls close in the crucial battleground of North Carolina at 7:30.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Polls have also closed for most voters in Florida, although those in the panhandle still have another hour to cast their ballots. The state is close to a pure tossup based on pre-election polls -- but nearly a must-win for Trump. If Clinton is able to bank that state's 29 electoral votes, Trump will need a series of dramatic upset victories in traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
Let's take an initial look at what the markets are doing as we get the first lot of results. Japanese and Korean markets have opened to join Australia and New Zealand -- all those stock benchmarks are up right now.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
The Vermont, Indiana, and Kentucky wins were all expected, and don't change the map. More surprising is that networks aren't yet ready to project a state like South Carolina, which should be an easy win for Trump. The Clinton campaign is counting on a win in Virginia, which has become increasingly Democratic in recent years and is home to her running mate, Tim Kaine.
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor
Vermont: Clinton is Projected Winner in Vermont
- Would pick up 3 Electoral College votes
- Vermont was considered a “solid Clinton” state by RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor
Indiana: Trump is Projected Winner in Indiana
- Would pick up 11 Electoral College votes
- Indiana was classified as “Likely Trump,” according to RealClearPolitics
Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor
Kentucky: Trump is Projected Winner in Kentucky
- Would pick up 8 Electoral College votes
- Kentucky was considered a “solid Trump” state by RealClearPolitics
Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor
Hillary Clinton Wins Vermont: AP
Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor
Trump Wins Indiana, Kentucky: AP
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
And Clinton's historically bad poll numbers are still better than those of Donald Trump, who 57 percent of voters see unfavorably. The real estate mogul's controversial comments about women and minorities have decimated his appeal in urban centers and among female and nonwhite Americans. The closing days of his candidacy were also rocked by controversy after the conviction of two former top aides to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who is heading Trump's transition team, in the Bridgegate saga.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
For Clinton, election hinges on winning an electorate that views her as untrustworthy and unlikable. The FBI examination over her a new cache of emails only exacerbated this view. Although FBI Director James Comey said Sunday that the review did not change the agency's decision not to pursue criminal charges against Clinton, some 51 percent of voters still say they view her unfavorably, according to the latest Bloomberg Politics poll.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
College-educated voters now represent 50 percent of the electorate -- a record-setting level, and a positive sign for Clinton. But Trump's team is likely heartened by data showing white Evangelical Christians -- a core constituency -- making up 27 percent of voters in the preliminary exit polls.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
White voters account for 70 percent of the electorate, with 11 percent of voters identifying as Hispanic and 12 percent as black. That's a slightly more diverse electorate than in previous years.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Early exit polls showed voters unhappy with their choice in the presidential election. More than half -- 54 percent -- said they saw Hillary Clinton unfavorably, while 61 percent said the same of Donald Trump, according to ABC News. Three in four say they made their decision on who to vote for more than a month ago.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
Folks in Asia are a little surprised by the risk-on equity rally we're seeing as the early vote counts start to trickle in. Chihiro Ohta, a senior strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. In Tokyo, says stocks are delivering a solid performance:
“I thought the market would take on more of a wait-and-see stance, but it looks like markets around the globe are pricing in a Clinton win.”
But it's early days yet.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
After tumbling on Monday, the VIX has moved cautiously today. The CBOE gauge of expected volatility in U.S. stocks added 0.2 percent on Tuesday, following the previous session's 17 percent surge.
Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
The next time the U.S. stock market trades we'll likely have a winner in this grueling election. Let's recap the trading day that was Tuesday:
* S&P 500 Index extended its relief rally in the wake of the second FBI letter. Utilities and phone stocks led the benchmark up 0.4% to close at 2,139.53, its highest close since Oct. 25.
* The dollar meandered as gains in some high-yielding currencies like the Mexican peso and the Kiwi neutered losses in havens like the yen and the Swiss franc.
* HAVENS: Gold fell for a second session, slipping 0.5 percent in the spot market to $1,275.72 an ounce. The yen fell to its weakest level this month, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields added three basis points to 1.86 percent, the highest close since May.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
One thing we'll be watching closely tonight is whether the so-called "ground game" matters. The Clinton campaign plowed millions into an effort to turnout voters in key swing states, while Trump's team largely outsourced the effort to the Republican National Committee. Preliminary results from a Morning Consult/POLITICO Exit Poll suggest Clinton's strategy may have paid dividends: 17 percent of voters say they were contacted by the Clinton campaign, compared to only 8 percent who say they were reached by Trump's team.
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Donald Trump's visit to the polls was slightly more eventful, with the candidate cheered and jeered as he cast his ballot at a Manhattan elementary school. Asked if he would concede the election if Clinton emerged victorious, Trump said, "We'll see what happens."
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Both candidates went to the polls this morning in New York. At an elementary school in Chappaqua, N.Y., Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, cast their ballot. The Democratic nominee said the experience was a "humbling feeling" and that she was thinking of her mother, Dorothy Rodham, who was born on the day Congress approved women's right to vote. Later in the morning, Clinton conducted a series of radio interviews to encourage supporters to get out and vote.
Anny Kuo, TOP Editor
This table lists the poll closing times of all states and the District of Columbia. Note that for states with polling places that span multiple time zones, the latest closing time is used:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
While uncertainty remains, there's broad agreement on which states will decide the fate of the election. A group of nine states: New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are considered battlegrounds most likely to swing the presidential contest. Here's FiveThirtyEight's predictions for the swing states, illustrating how close some of those races are:
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Election prediction models say Clinton is the favorite to capture the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the White House. But with only a modest polling advantage, the odds of a Trump upset are significant:
- FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 71.4 percent chance
- The New York Times Upshot model says she has an 85 percent chance
- PredictWise betting markets give Clinton an 89 percent chance
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
In the presidential race, polls suggest a tight race headed into Election Day. The two candidates appear virtually deadlocked in the polls, with Secretary Hillary Clinton holding a 44 percent to 41 percent advantage according to the final Bloomberg Politics poll taken before Election Day.
Tal Barak Harif
Here's a list of the rest of today's contributors:
- Emma O'Brien, Global Markets Editor
- David Finnerty, FX Strategist
- Andy Sharp, Government Editor
- Crystal Chui, Social Velocity
- Eric Martin, Economy Reporter
- Glen Carey, Saudi Arabia Bureau Chief
- Jake Rudnitsky, Europe Finance Reporter
- Anny Kuo, TOP Editor
- Caleb Solomon, TOP Editor
- Cesca Antonelli, Executive Editor
- Colin Keatinge, TOPLive Editor
- Foster Wong, TOPLive Editor
- Romaine Bostick, TOP Editor
- Tal Barak Harif, TOP Editor
Justin Sink, White House Reporter
Welcome to Election Night! I'm Justin Sink, White House Correspondent for Bloomberg Politics, and tonight we're going to bring you full coverage of the historic 2016 election. I'll be keeping you up to date on all the latest real-time results and analysis as the nation chooses its next president.
Joining me tonight are my colleagues Jodi Schneider, who is focusing on the battle to control Congress, Paula Dwyer, who is looking at what issues drove voters to the polls, and Dan Moss, who is looking at some of the broader economic trends influencing the contest. We also have our eye on important gubernatorial races and ballot initiatives across all 50 states.
