The calculators will be out in the Pakistan camp after England restricted New Zealand to just 159/7 after 20 overs in their final Group 2, Super 8 outing at the R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo on February 27. England's spin trio of Adil Rashid (2/28), Will Jacks (2/23) and Rehan Ahmed (2/28) put the choke on the Kiwis, to hand the Men in Green a narrow lifeline in their bid to stay alive in the tournament.
However, Pakistan still need the English batters to go out and complete the job, preferably in double-quick time, to turn that faint glimmer of hope into a realistic lifeline.
The NRR Mountain
New Zealand entered their final Super 8 fixture in a position of strength with 3 points and a formidable Net Run Rate (NRR) of +3.050, putting them in second spot. Pakistan are third with just 1 point and a negative NRR of -0.461, seemingly destined for an early exit.
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However, by failing to post a dominant score on a spin-friendly Colombo track, the Black Caps have put their NRR buffer at risk of taking a significant dent. If England, who have already secured a semi-final berth, chase down the target with significant overs to spare, it will drag New Zealand's NRR down, narrowing the gap. Pakistan must eventually bridge in their final Super 8 outing on Saturday.
Pakistan will hope England manage to beat New Zealand by a large enough margin that will help bring the Kiwis' NRR down toward the +1.5 to +2.0 range, making the mountain slightly easier to climb.
Pakistan's Path to the Semi-Finals
As the tournament approaches the knockout phase, Pakistan's survival now firmly relies on two outcomes.
Firstly, England must defeat New Zealand tonight. A Kiwi win or even a wash-out (which would grant New Zealand 1 point) would officially eliminate Pakistan, as they could no longer catch the Kiwis' 4-point total.
Secondly, should England win, Pakistan must then secure a victory by a massive, record-breaking margin when they face an eliminated Sri Lanka on February 28.
To leapfrog New Zealand on NRR, Salman Ali Aga's side would likely need to win by upwards of 70–80 runs or chase their target within the first half of the game.
For now, the focus of millions of fans in Pakistan shifts to the England dugout. Any slip-up by Harry Brook's men tonight would mean the end of the road for the 2009 champions.
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