As orbital traffic reaches a breaking point, Stanford scientists are sounding the alarm on the need for more efficient international governance.
Based on the Stanford Emerging Technology Review 2026, the rapid expansion of the "NewSpace" economy has transformed Earth's orbit into a congested and hazardous "global commons" that is now at a critical turning point.
"Because of dramatic increases in satellites, debris, and geopolitical space competition, new technologies and new international policy frameworks will be needed to manage the traffic of vehicles, prevent international conflict in space, and ensure responsible stewardship of this global commons," the report highlights.
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As per the report, space has become a finite planetary resource, especially after the surge in active satellites — from roughly 1,000 in 2014 to a projected tens of thousands within the next decade.
Beyond active traffic, the presence of approximately 1.2 million pieces of debris larger than 1 cm poses a persistent threat to essential infrastructure, including communication networks and the International Space Station.
Because current international policy frameworks are insufficient to manage this density, Stanford scientists emphasise the need for new technologies such as autonomous swarming and optical navigation to track "resident space objects" and prevent accidental collisions or geopolitical conflict.
Furthermore, the transition of space situational awareness responsibilities from military oversight to civil programs like the Traffic Coordination System for Space (TraCSS) reflects the growing necessity of specialised, non-defense management for commercial safety.
Setting up a responsible stewardship is no longer optional; it has become a prerequisite for ensuring that space remains a viable domain for future scientific discovery and economic growth, the experts point out.
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