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ICICI Securities Report
The latest report on global gas markets by the International Energy Agency provides interesting insights. Takeaways:
Post a decline of 1.5% YoY in global demand in CY22, CY23 returned to growth of 0.5% YoY.
CY24 may see stronger momentum with 2.5% YoY growth driven by Asia pacific, Middle East and Africa.
Supply growth keeps pace, mainly driven by U.S Liquefied Natural Gas exports, with the expansion of key offtake pipelines to support growth.
Overall LNG trade may rise by 3.5% YoY (~13.7 million tonne) in CY24, with Africa becoming a major contributor.
Geopolitical risks weigh heavily on these estimates and create material downside risks.
Prices to remain moderate, with Dutch TTF and JKM Asia LNG prices for CY24 forecast at $ 10/metric million british thermal unit and $ 11/metric million british thermal unit, respectively.
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