Zee Entertainment Shares Fall The Most In 11 Months
Shares of Zee Entertainment fell as much as 15%.
Shares of Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. fell the most since March as analysts see pressure on margin and cash flows despite improving advertising and subscription revenue.
The broadcaster reported a 33% year-on-year rise in overall revenue at Rs 2,729.3 crore in the quarter-ended December, according to an exchange filing. That compares with the Rs 2,081.5-crore consensus estimate of analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
A Rs 552-crore content syndication deal signed by the company, too, aided the top line.
- Advertising revenue rose 7.5% over the year earlier and 43% sequentially, reflecting improving consumer demand and spending.
- A 9.3% year-on-year subscription revenue growth in the domestic business was led by television and Zee5.
- Operating profit rose 31%, but margin contracted 50 basis points to 26.2%.
The company in an analyst call said it will ramp-up investments in its movie production business as well as Sugarbox—its online content delivery subsidiary.
While some analysts see this as a significant negative, impacting margin, others said the company is prepared to sacrifice margin to pursue growth.
Shares of Zee Entertainment fell as much as 15% to Rs 212 apiece — the lowest in two months. Of the 27 analysts tracking the company, 13 have a ‘buy’ rating, nine suggest a ‘hold’ and five recommend a ‘sell’. The average of Bloomberg consensus 12-month price target implies an upside of 18.6%.
Here’s what analysts had to say:
Kotak Institutional Equities
- Downgrades to ‘reduce’ from ‘add’; but hikes price target to Rs 240 apiece from Rs 225.
- Downward margin guidance rules out earnings upside.
- Ramp-up of movie production business and Sugarbox capex will alter capital intensity and drag cash flows.
- Few balance sheet concerns continue.
- Key metrics and disclosures do not inspire confidence.
- Stock has run up and does not merit further re-rating, given the structural risks to the core business and lacklustre progress of Zee5.
Dolat Capital
- Downgrades to ‘sell’ from ‘buy’ and cuts price target to Rs 204 apiece from Rs 247.
- Adjusted for content syndication, free cash flow was negative.
- Stepping up investments will severely impact margins, working capital and thus free cash flow, which is a serious negative.
- Estimates a substantial drop in Ebitda margin of at least 500 basis points or more in FY22.
- Investment in high-risk, low-margin movie production business is likely to make the earnings trajectory significantly volatile.
- Persistent backtracking by the management on its own words/guidance is concerning.
Morgan Stanley
- Maintains ‘underweight’ rating with a price target of Rs 170 apiece.
- Zee5 revenue increased but engagement did not show much change sequentially.
- Content investment rising in FY22 will impact margins, working capital and free cash flow.
- Risks in the business are fast changing and investments in content, tech and marketing are likely to pose new challenges.
- Incremental success in digital and core business will be the key to drive confidence on near-term earnings.
Macquarie
- Maintains ‘outperform’ rating; hikes price target to Rs 308 from Rs 258.
- Likes intent to invest further in core business.
- Welcomes readiness to sacrifice industry leading margins to pursue growth.
- Expects to further build on ad growth momentum after third quarter.
- Remains positive on improving ad outlook, balance sheet and efforts to restore credibility.
- Lowers FY21-23 EPS estimates by 1-3% largely on lower other income.
Motilal Oswal
- Maintains ‘neutral’ rating with a price target of Rs 245 apiece.
- Revenue recovery has been encouraging.
- High investments in content acquisition, acceleration in low margin movie production and investments in digital platform will keep margins contained at 27% in FY22.
- Remained committed to bringing in increased governance and transparency towards investments.
- Raises FY21, FY22 Ebitda estimates by 9% and 5%, respectively, led by quicker recovery in ad revenues.
- Any potential rerating will be governed by a consistent and disciplined investment approach.