US President Donald Trump announced a two‑week ceasefire with Iran. Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi indicated that transit through the Strait of Hormuz could be permitted during this period, provided the United States suspends all military actions against the Islamic Republic.
GIFT Nifty, viewed as an early signal for the benchmark Nifty 50 index, gained by over 3.4%, or over 750 points at 23,863 as of 6:45 a.m.
Get the latest updates on the US-Iran ceasefire here.
Global Cues
Japanese benchmark index futures are signalling a strong opening for Asian equities, with Nikkei futures jumping 4.4% in early trading as markets react swiftly to the US–Iran ceasefire agreement. This marks the first significant global market response following the ceasefire announcement, setting the direction for equity markets across Asia, including India, for the remainder of the trading day.
South Korea's benchmark Kospi index outperformed regional peers, surging 5.3%. Hong Kong markets were poised for a sharp rebound as trading resumed after the holiday break. Hang Seng index futures stood at 25,233, compared with the previous close of 25,116.53. The MSCI Asia‑Pacific index was trading 2.6% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up nearly 1,000 points, or 2.1%, while S&P 500 futures rose 2.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 3%, and European stock futures surged as much as 5%.
ALSO READ: Iran Truce: Kospi Jumps 5% To Lead Gains In Asian Markets, Nikkei Up 4%
What Does It Mean For India?
For Indian markets, the implications are meaningful. The Nifty is expected to open sharply higher with a gap‑up start, on the basis of rising GIFT Nifty levels. Rate‑sensitive sectors such as banking and real estate could see strong gains.
Gaurav Udani, Founder of ThinCredBlu Securities, said Nifty is "likely to open sharply higher by nearly 700 points around the 23,800 level, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and positive global cues. While the strong gap‑up reflects a clear improvement in sentiment, he cautioned that the index is nearing a key resistance zone between 23,800 and 24,000, where some profit booking or consolidation cannot be ruled out."
He added that, "On the downside, immediate support is seen in the 23,400–23,500 range, and any dips towards this zone could offer a better risk‑reward opportunity for fresh long positions." Udani added that given the magnitude of the opening move, markets are expected to remain volatile and highly sensitive to news flow, making it unwise to chase prices at elevated levels. His strategy for the session remains clear — "wait for dips to enter longs rather than initiating trades at the open, with patience and disciplined execution being crucial."
Oil‑linked sectors, including aviation and oil marketing companies, may witness significant buying interest. FMCG and automobile stocks are also likely to benefit from reduced concerns around input costs.
Richard Harris, Chief Executive, Port Shelter Investment Management, told NDTV Profit that he does not expect equities to see a sharp decline from current levels, though he remains cautious on the sustainability of the recent rally, which he believes is not fully justified.
He expects the US dollar to ease modestly going forward, even as global debt levels have climbed significantly due to the war. Harris warned that equity markets may witness another “dead cat bounce,” particularly as long‑term US employment indicators continue to weaken. He also pointed out that oil prices remain well above pre‑war levels and are likely to stay elevated in the near term.
Get the latest updates on the stock market here.
An analysis by Citi in the middle of March had highlighted how varying crude oil price points — ranging from a manageable $80 to a "tail-risk" scenario of $120 per barrel — could reshape the nation's fiscal health and the daily expenses of its citizens.
If crude prices hover around $80 per barrel, India's economy is unlikely to face immediate stress. At this price point, the government and state-run oil marketing companies possess enough fiscal cushion to absorb fluctuations. Consumers are unlikely to see changes at the fuel pump, and the broader indicators of inflation and GDP growth remain largely insulated from energy-related shocks.
Should prices persist at the $90–$100 range for roughly a quarter, the macro-economic picture begins to shift. Citi identifies this as the 'central risk scenario.' Oil alone could add 15–20 basis points to inflation. When broader commodity disruptions — such as fertilizers and petrochemicals — are factored in, the overall inflation risk could rise to 50–75 basis points.
Growth could take a 20–30 basis point hit, partly due to higher energy costs and supply disruptions affecting manufacturing and transport. India's import bill would widen significantly, pushing the current account deficit higher by about $20–25 billion. If the government cuts fuel taxes to cushion consumers, the fiscal deficit could widen by roughly 0.1% of GDP.
ALSO READ: US-Iran War: What Do Crude Oil Levels Mean For Indian Households — Three Scenarios
Commodity Impact
The development also weighed heavily on crude prices, with Brent futures slipping nearly 9.7% to trade around $94 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which tends to move more closely with US economic trends and financial markets, saw a steeper decline, falling almost 15% to about $96 per barrel.
Gold futures jumped as much as 2.5% after US President Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire and confirmed the cancellation of planned strikes on Iran. Tehran, in turn, agreed to pause hostilities and allow limited safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for the next two weeks.
In response to these developments, June gold futures were trading around 2.51% higher at $4,851 an ounce. The ceasefire has boosted demand for safe‑haven assets such as gold, while also lifting equity markets and exerting downward pressure on crude oil prices.
RBI Policy Announcement Today
The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to announce its policy decision on April 8, 2026. The consensus among economists is that the central bank will hold the repo rate steady at 5.25%, retaining its neutral stance.
This would follow earlier rate cuts and the pause announced in February 2026, reflecting a continued focus on policy stability. That said, the RBI's accompanying statement is expected to flag higher inflation projections while potentially revising GDP growth estimates downward.
ALSO READ: RBI Monetary Policy Preview: Status Quo Likely As Oil Price Shock Lifts Inflation Risks
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