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Prabhudas Lilladher Report
Luggage:
While demand environment was strong in April, secondary sales witnessed a slowdown in May and June. We expect Safari Industries India Ltd.'s top-line growth to be at ~two times of VIP Industries Ltd. despite sharp aggression shown by the market leader in launching promotional offers to boost sales in Q1 FY24.
Given steady raw material environment which had a downward bias, we expect VIP Industries/Safari Industries to report gross margin of 51.5%/43.0% respectively.
Hotels:
Overall demand environment remains robust and we expect Chalet Hotels Ltd. to report average room rate of Rs 10,067 with an occupancy of 70%. Chalet's performance in Q1 FY24 will get an additional boost from acquisition of Dukes Retreat (80 rooms property) and operationalisation of 168 rooms at West-In 2 in Hyderabad (one-month impact as the property started operations in June).
Aviation:
We expect Interglobe Aviation Ltd. to report a strong quarter with load factor of 88% and yield of Rs 4.86 led by strong demand and bankruptcy of Go First (supply side constraints led to spike in airfares and resulted in market share gains for Indigo).
Consequent to a ~15% decline in aviation turbine fuel prices on sequential basis we expect gross margin of Rs 3.1 (revenue per available seat kilometer less fuel cost per available seat kilometer).
High load factor, better yields and declining crude prices is a perfect blend for Indigo to report sharp improvement in performance with revenues of Rs 153 billion (up 19.3% YoY) and Ebitdar margin of 25.3% (adjusted for forex impact).
IRCTC:
Excluding last 11-days of June, the cumulative non-suburban passenger reservation system traffic stood at 162 million. Assuming in the third bucket period of June, passenger traffic settles down at 20 million (similar to bucket I and II of June), collective passenger traffic for the quarter would stand at ~182 million.
Given 1.7-1.8 times passengers travel per e-ticket, we expect online bookings of ~100 million in Q1 FY24 resulting in convenience revenue of Rs 1.9 billion.
Overall, we expect Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation's revenues to increase 9.3% YoY to Rs 9.3 billion with an Ebitda margin of 36.1%.
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