The Nifty 50 heads into the new trading week with investors tracking developments in the Strait of Hormuz, India's consumer inflation data and the June-quarter earnings season, after the benchmark index ended one of its most volatile weeks in recent months without breaking out of its consolidation range.
The index moved within a 726-point range during the week, its widest weekly swing in the past eight weeks, before ending with a bearish candle that carried shadows on both sides. Trading activity, however, became less volatile toward the end of the week. Friday's intraday range narrowed to 108 points, the smallest in the past 13 sessions, while both Thursday's and Friday's price action stayed within Wednesday's bearish candle, signalling that the market is waiting for a fresh trigger.
The benchmark has now spent four weeks trading within a defined range despite heightened volatility. Technical indicators suggest the broader trend remains intact, but the next directional move is likely to depend on whether the index breaks above resistance or slips below key support. Alongside chart signals, investors will watch geopolitical risks, inflation data and corporate earnings for fresh cues.
Nifty Holds Key Support Levels
The Nifty has continued to find support around its 10-week and 20-week moving averages during the past four weeks, limiting downside moves.
The gap-up opening from June 15 remains an important support area, with the 50-day moving average positioned near the same level.
The index also continues to trade above its major moving averages, including the eight-day exponential moving average, the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day moving averages, indicating that the broader trend has not weakened.
The 100-day moving average at 24,019 and the 20-day moving average at 24,044 form the first support zone. A stronger support band lies between 24,000 and 23,829, where the 20-day and 50-day moving averages converge. A sustained move below this area could increase selling pressure.
On the upside, resistance is seen between 24,300 and 24,349, corresponding with the gap-down zone created on July 8. A close above 24,602 would confirm a longer-term breakout and could pave the way for the index to move toward 24,774, where the 50-week moving average is placed.
Momentum Indicators Stay Positive
Momentum indicators continue to support the broader trend, although they have yet to provide a clear directional signal.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index remains near the 55 mark, pointing to neutral-to-positive momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remains above its nine-period signal line, indicating that underlying strength continues.
A break below the 20-week moving average at 23,817 or last week's low of 23,805 would weaken the current technical structure and raise the likelihood of further declines. A close above 24,602 would confirm a breakout from the current range and strengthen the case for a fresh uptrend.
Strait of Hormuz, CPI Data and Earnings in Focus
Market participants will monitor geopolitical developments after weekend reports suggested the Strait of Hormuz had been closed. Any disruption to global crude oil supplies could lift oil prices and weigh on Indian equities because India relies heavily on crude imports.
Investors will also track developments related to the U.S.-Iran conflict, India's consumer price index inflation data and the progress of the Q1 FY27 earnings season for direction.
Until the Nifty breaks out of its current trading range, the market is likely to remain driven by incoming data and global developments, with support and resistance levels continuing to define near-term trading.
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