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Motilal Oswal Report
After reporting a healthy earnings growth over the last 10-12 quarters, growth in Q4 FY23 earnings is likely to moderate – particularly for Bharti Airtel Ltd. and Reliance Jio – in the absence of any significant price increase or spectrum usage charge reduction.
Bharti Airtel took price hike for the 2G minimum charge plan of Rs 99 to Rs 155 but that may see limited gains. Overall, average revenue per user improvements should moderate with lower gains from 4G-led mix benefits.
Over the last few quarters, we saw sharp market share gains by Bharti Airtel and RJio from Vodafone Idea, which too may moderate given Vodafone Idea now seeing decent network experience.
Sim card consolidation may continue and subsequently, we expect 1-2% ARPU increase across the telcos, driving 2-3% sequential revenue growth for Bharti Airtel and RJio and flat revenue for Vodafone Idea. The improvement in blended ARPU is backed by device upgrades –
shifting to 4G from 2G,
premiumisation – shifting to higher data plans/postpaid, and
data monetisation.
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