Stock Picks Today: Tata Motors PV, Dixon Tech, UPL On Brokerages' Radar

A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on Acutas Chemicals, IDFC First Bank, UPL, Titan, TVS Motor, LG Electronics India, Dixon Technologies, Nuvama Wealth, Tata Motors PV, Cipla, and several cement, industrial, steel and financial names ahead of the upcoming session.

They have also shared broader commentary on India–US trade implications, FII ownership trends, cement pricing dynamics, CRDMO performance, industrial order flows, steel spreads, bond yields and RBI policy trajectory, alongside global tariff developments and their potential impact on growth, valuations and market sentiment.

Investec on Acutas Chemicals

• Investec initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs 2,500.
• Growth momentum is expected to remain strong, led by darolutamide (Daro) and supported by steady base and specialty chemicals business.
• Daro offers a long growth runway, with management actively diversifying to reduce single-product dependence.
• The company is expanding into electrolytes, semiconductor chemistries and new CDMO molecules.
• New expansions are expected to start contributing from FY28.
• Investec forecasts sales/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 28%/42%/43% over FY25–28E, with ROI above 20%.

Ashika on IDFC First Bank (Fraud Disclosure)

• Ashika views the issue as an operational risk event rather than deterioration in fundamentals.
• The key phrase in disclosure is “under reconciliation,” not “loss.”
• There is currently insufficient clarity to quantify the final P&L impact.
• Under an 80% recovery scenario, potential hit could be ~Rs 120 crore.
• In a conservative case, the full Rs 590 crore could be charged upfront.
• Full loss would imply 10–15 bps RoA impact and 20–25 bps CET1 impact.
• The issue does not relate to retail asset quality, credit costs or franchise momentum.

Nuvama on UPL

• Nuvama downgrades the stock to Hold with a revised target price of Rs 816.
• Debt overhang remains unresolved.
• While business restructuring simplifies the structure, it does not reduce total debt.
• Key risks include cyclical demand, volatile raw material prices and structural risks from increasing GM crop adoption.

Morgan Stanley on Titan

• Morgan Stanley maintains Overweight with a target price of Rs 4,529.
• Concerns around rising gold ETF investments are seen as misplaced.
• Consumer affinity for physical gold remains intact.
• Titan is well positioned to gain share and drive customer acquisition.
• Jewellery market share stands at just 8% in FY25, leaving ample room for growth.

Nuvama on TVS Motor

• Nuvama retains Buy with a target price of Rs 4,300.
• Company is positioned to outpace peers in the domestic market.
• Exports momentum remains robust.
• Strong EV strategy, with collaboration with BMW and investment in Ultraviolette.
• Multiple launches planned across 2W and 3W segments.
• Revenue/Earnings CAGR of 12%/21% expected over FY26–28E.

Goldman Sachs on FII Ownership

• Foreign ownership in Indian equities has fallen to 16.7%, the lowest since 2022.
• DII ownership stands at 16.3%.
• Retail and promoter holdings have declined to near three-year lows.
• Largest foreign ownership declines seen in consumer-sensitive sectors, utilities, IT and banks.

JPMorgan on LG Electronics

• JPMorgan maintains Overweight with a target price of Rs 1,620.
• CEO interactions indicate strong growth confidence and export moat strengthening.
• Q4 demand off to a strong start, especially in summer-centric categories.
• B2B and AMC segments scaling up.
• Market share continues to rise despite stiff competition.
• Significant opportunity in mid-to-low income households.

JPMorgan on Dixon Technologies

• JPMorgan maintains Overweight with a target price of Rs 13,700.
• Easing of Chinese equipment restrictions could positively impact JV approvals under Press Note 3.
• Potential fast-tracking of pending JVs with Vivo and HKC.
• Expect 43% earnings CAGR over FY26–28E driven by Longcheer JV ramp-up and Q Tech expansion.

Morgan Stanley on Dixon Technologies

• Morgan Stanley maintains Underweight.
• DRAM spot prices have surged 6.8x YoY.
• Mobile DRAM prices expected to rise 88–93% in Q1CY26.
• Rising input costs pose headwinds for low-to-mid tier smartphones.
• Dixon's OEM exposure heavily skewed to sub-US$300 segment.
• Contract renewals at higher costs provide limited insulation from inflation.

Bernstein on Nuvama Wealth

• Bernstein maintains Outperform with a target price of Rs 1,710 (cut from Rs 1,940).
• Key overhang remains PAG's exit strategy and potential supply concerns.
• HFT volumes likely to face pressure amid higher STT and tighter leverage norms.
• Exit timing will dictate supply dynamics.

HSBC on Cement

• Dealer checks indicate stronger non-trade prices.
• Trade price hikes in East and South have not sustained.
• Demand growth remains stable at 5–7%.
• Next window for price hikes likely in April–May.
• EBITDA remains strong at Rs 1,000–1,100/t.
• Consolidation benefits may still play out.

Nomura on Cement

• Nomura remains bullish near-term.
• Prices sustained at Rs 10/bag above end-Jan levels.
• Demand remains subdued but gradual recovery expected.
• Sustainable price hikes of Rs 40–50/bag expected post March 2026.

Axis Capital on CIE Automotive

• Axis upgrades to Buy with a target price of Rs 620 (from Rs 495).
• Strong management commentary and improving growth outlook.
• EPS estimates raised by 6–9% for CY26–27.
• India recovery expected; Europe steady.

Axis Capital on Cummins India

• Axis maintains Add and hikes target price to Rs 4,950.
• Healthy industrial outlook led by railways and marine.
• Steady R&D investments.
• Data centre capacity additions (3–5GW by FY30) could surprise positively.

Nomura on Tata Motors PV

• Nomura maintains Neutral with a target price of Rs 390.
• Punch EV refresh seen as positive.
• Electrification push in small car segment.
• Profitability supported by PLI benefits.
• Punch EV volumes at ~1,500 units/month, expected to rise 30–50%.
• JLR demand risks offset domestic PV upside.

Jefferies on Cipla (USFDA Classification)

• Jefferies reiterates Underperform.
• Lanreotide accounts for ~12% of CY25 US sales.
• Greece facility received nine observations.
• Lanreotide production temporarily paused.
• Higher probability of OAI outcome.
• Supply normalization may extend into FY28.
• EPS estimates 10–20% below consensus for FY27–28.

Jefferies on India CRDMO

• Quarter saw 4 misses, 3 beats, 1 in-line.
• Revenue grew 7.5% YoY.
• Growth led by Gland Pharma, Divi's and Sai Life.
• Destocking headwinds impacted Syngene, Piramal Pharma and Cohance.
• Top picks remain Sai Life and Divi's.
• Laurus upgraded to Hold; Syngene downgraded to Underperform.

Jefferies on Industrials

• Order flow rose 14% YoY.
• Growth led by L&T, BHEL and BEL.
• Power equipment and defence remain preferred plays.
• ABB order flow up 52% YoY.
• Ex-HVDC growth strong at 74% YoY for Siemens Energy, Hitachi Energy and CG Power.
• Top picks: Siemens Energy, Hitachi Energy, HAL, BEL, KEI, L&T.

Morgan Stanley on Steel

• Domestic HRC prices stable at Rs 53,700/t.
• Up 17% since mid-December lows.
• Rebar prices down 2% WoW.
• Safeguard duty provides sustained support.
• Demand improvement expected to absorb production ramp-up.
• Near-term outlook positive for steel stocks.

CLSA on 10-Year Yield

• 10-year yield remains sticky at 6.7%.
• Strong private credit growth limits fiscal flexibility.
• Domestic savings pool insufficient for current credit expansion.
• Policy solutions require fiscal consolidation or credit moderation.

Morgan Stanley on MPC Minutes

• Rates held steady at 5.25%.
• Policy stance remains neutral.
• Inflation pressures muted.
• Rates expected to remain steady through 2026.
• RBI likely to inject more liquidity in March.

Wells Fargo on SCOTUS Tariff Ruling

• Initial read is net positive.
• Tariff decisions likely to face longer timelines.
• Refund requests possible but uncertain.
• Ruling may reduce volatility.
• China tariffs remain uncertain.
• BofA on SCOTUS Tariff Ruling
• Effective US tariffs could fall by ~2.5%.
• Sectoral tariffs may replace blanket ones.
• Small positive for US outlook.
• Deficit may rise above 6% of GDP.

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