A host of global brokerages have rolled out fresh views on Reliance Industries, ABB India, Coal India and several sectors, including real estate and autos, while also sharing macro views on inflation and market trends amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
BofA on CPI
- February CPI review: Inflation rising but more gradually
- Food prices higher while services inflation remains contained
- Inflation largely in control, though West Asia conflict adds uncertainty
- Ongoing conflict likely to impact WPI inflation in the March print
- CPI impact expected to remain limited due to government intervention in fuel prices
- Every $10 per barrel rise in energy prices could add 25–30 bps to annual headline inflation
- Maintain view that RBI will likely hold rates for an extended period with a neutral stance
Jefferies on Reliance Industries
- Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 1,740 from Rs 1,820
- Defensive play amid current market volatility
- O2C segment benefiting from Middle East supply disruptions which have lifted refining and petrochemical spreads
- Expect elevated spreads to sustain through the conflict and boost margins in H1FY27
- Lowered Jio FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 10% and 6% respectively as tariff hike expectations shift to Dec-2026
- Raised consolidated FY27 EBITDA estimates by 2% driven by stronger O2C performance
- Stock trading below long-term averages suggesting limited downside
MS on Real Estate
- Global AI capex surge could lift India's data centre capacity to 10.5GW by FY31
- Lodha and Mindspace have the highest exposure
- DLF and Prestige Estates also have exposure to the segment
- Developers benefit from land access, approvals expertise and experience in building rental assets
- Data centres may deliver returns comparable to commercial assets but with faster development and strong rental growth
- Lodha and Mindspace could see more than 20% upside from current valuations due to data centre expansion
Jefferies India Strategy
- Bottom-up analyst top ideas for March 2026
- Portfolio includes 23 Buy ideas and 8 Underperform calls
- New Buy inclusions include SBI, Star Health, Groww, Bharat Forge, JSW Steel, Eternal and Max Healthcare
- New Underperform calls include Hyundai, Cipla and Wipro
- Two earlier Underperform ideas upgraded: Delhivery to Buy and Laurus Labs to Hold
Macquarie on Auto Sector
- Macro uncertainty poses risks to growth outlook
- March 2026 retail sales and production trends remain resilient so far
- Focus shifting toward earnings risks related to demand and margins
- Brokerage had earlier been constructive on the sector due to strong demand expectations
- Now expects India auto stocks to underperform the broader market in the near term
HSBC on Coal India
- Maintain Hold; Hike TP to Rs 420 from Rs 380
- Higher e-auction premiums supportive in the near term
- Structural oversupply of domestic coal remains a concern
- Higher gas prices and regional coal prices boosting e-auction premiums and volumes
- FY28 earnings estimates unchanged as oversupply and weak thermal demand could pressure premiums longer term
- Near-term outperformance driven by Middle East situation but gains may fade once gas supplies normalise
UBS on CPI
- February CPI inflation at 3.2% YoY came above consensus expectations
- Rising energy prices increasing near-term inflation risks for India
- Iran-related supply shock leading markets to price potential RBI rate hikes in 2026
- Food inflation continued to accelerate
UBS on ABB India
- Upgrade to Buy from Neutral; Hike TP to Rs 8,030 from Rs 5,310
- Short-cycle enablers at an inflection point
- Markets have underestimated ABB's ability to tap a larger addressable market across motion and electrification segments
- Added to UBS APAC Key Call list
- See favourable risk-reward with structural and cyclical growth drivers aligning
- Growth expected from niche end markets expanding at 2–4x real GDP growth
- Short-cycle outlook improving from recent lows
- Positive triggers include cascading impact of capex decisions, budget measures, trade deals and large project traction
CLSA India Thematics
- El Niño risk looming over India
- Heatwave conditions could boost demand for summer products like ACs, coolers, refrigerators, fans and summer FMCG including ice creams and beverages
- Below-normal rainfall may push up food inflation and pressure rural incomes
- Tractor demand could face downside risk
- Higher power demand and rising global coal prices could tighten coal availability for non-power sectors and lift e-auction prices for Coal India
CLSA Price Action – Laurence Balanco
- Continued market weakness leaves indices vulnerable to further downside
- Next major support seen at February/April 2025 lows around 21,777–21,800
- A decline to those levels would negate the cup-and-handle formation
- Suggests the consolidation pattern has evolved into a more complex structure needing more time to develop
- The 24,300–24,500 zone now acting as resistance
- 50-day and 200-day moving averages around 25,341–25,382 add further resistance before the 26,277–26,373 highs.
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