Stock Picks Today: ICICI Bank, Home First Finance, Bajaj Auto, IndiGo And More On Brokerages' Radar

A host of global and domestic brokerages have rolled out fresh views on ICICI Bank, Home First Finance, Bajaj Auto, IndiGo and several sectors including cement, banks and smartphones.

Citi on Home First Finance (Management Meet)
Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1,380 per share
Expect mid- to high-teens disbursement growth in Q4
25% AUM growth guidance reaffirmed
Gujarat geography has gained notable traction
Stress in export-linked segments seen normalising
Expect provisioning coverage to increase

Macquarie Pair Trade

Bajaj Auto – Bull
Exports and electric two-wheeler segment showing strong growth
Export-heavy revenue mix positions the company better than peers
Strong dividend yield and robust balance sheet

Ashok Leyland – Bear
Macro uncertainty poses near-term demand risks
Margins could come under pressure due to higher commodity prices
Valuation multiples likely to contract

Jefferies on Cement Sector
Rising crude prices reintroduce cost inflation risk for the cement industry
Sector benefited from a benign cost environment over the past two years
Sustained fuel cost pressure could hurt margins
Higher use of green energy and easing competition may partially offset cost pressures
Large players such as UltraTech Cement expected to emerge stronger during industry shocks

Jefferies on Banks
Evaluating buyback optionality among Indian banks
Global bank buybacks doubled to more than $260 billion in 2025 supported by higher ROE and excess capital
Indian banks' ROE has improved, though growth remains stronger than global peers
Limited scope for buybacks in India, but higher dividend payouts possible after the increase in dividend caps
HDFC Bank, Union Bank and Bank of India have higher capital and payout potential
Kotak Mahindra Bank and CSB Bank have strong capitalisation but have historically maintained lower payouts

CLSA on Smartphones
Indian smartphone volumes declined 25% YoY and QoQ in January
Weak demand linked to higher memory prices and supply constraints
Average selling prices up around 8% since September
Motorola, Transsion, Oppo and Realme — key customers of Dixon — saw 20–68% YoY volume declines
This may raise concerns about meeting FY26 guidance and FY27 growth expectations
Entry-level smartphone segment facing pricing pressure due to memory price increases
Cloud service providers prioritising memory allocation over smartphones and PCs
Press Note 3 approvals and HKC JV are positive but already reflected in estimates
Key catalysts include easing memory prices and finalisation of the Vivo JV

Investec on ICICI Bank
Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1,685
Hosted MD & CEO Sandeep Bakhshi and Group CFO Anindya Banerjee
Management optimistic about credit growth trends for the banking system and ICICI Bank into FY27
Increasing competition from PSU banks acknowledged but not seen as a constraint
Despite geopolitical uncertainties, management sees the Indian banking system as resilient
ICICI Bank remains a top pick

InCred on Nephrocare Health
Initiate Add with TP of Rs 613
Strong market presence in a niche healthcare segment
Company holds leadership in the dialysis services industry
Asset-light partnerships help scale operations and support margins, though risks remain
Industry growth outlook remains strong

Citi on IndiGo
Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 5,100
Adjusted operations on Middle East routes amid geopolitical tensions
Operating 36 daily flights between March 16–28 versus earlier plan of 150–160 flights
Fuel surcharge impact could raise yields by around 8–10%
However, if fuel prices remain elevated, profitability may still face pressure despite fare increases

Citi India Strategy – Samiran Chakraborty & Surendra Goyal
Cut Nifty December 2026 target to 27,000 from 28,500
Lowered target valuation multiple to 19x from 20x to reflect downside risks to FY27 earnings
Downgrade autos to Neutral from Overweight due to risks from higher crude and gas prices and potential semiconductor disruptions
Remove M&M from top picks and MGL from top mid-cap picks

Sector stance and preferences:
Key Overweight: Banks, Healthcare, Telecom, Defence
Key Underweight: IT Services, Metals, Consumer Staples

If elevated crude prices persist for around three months:
See 20–30 bps downside risk to FY27 growth
Expect 50–75 bps upside risk to FY27 inflation
Also see ~0.1 percentage point upside risk to fiscal deficit and around $25 billion upside risk to the current account deficit.

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