Stock Picks Today: Glenmark Pharma, United Spirits, Kansai Nerolac, UPL, Exide And More On Brokerages' Radar

Brokerages have turned positive on a diverse set of stocks spanning the pharma, liquor, paints, real estate, battery manufacturing, construction equipment, and agrochemical sectors, with fresh recommendations on Glenamark, United Spirits, Kansai Nerolac, UPL, DLF, Adani Green Energy, Torrent Power, Escorts Kubota, Exide Industries, and IGI, while maintaining a constructive view on banks and financials. 

HSBC on Glenmark Pharma

• Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 2590 from Rs 2575
• Improving outlook for the US sales
• Q1 was operationally in line vs our forecast aided by healthy sales growth in core India and the US segments
• Pick-up in gFlovent inhaler, other respiratory launches and supplies from Monroe will drive US sales growth, in our view
• Next catalyst will be IND filing to start human trial for ISB 2301.

GS on United Spirits

• Maintain Buy with TP of Rs 1575
• Potential opening of Tamil Nadu could be a major tailwind
• TN is India's largest spirits market contributing ~16% to national volumes
• Drawing similarity from AP, TN liberalization is an underappreciated optionality
• Multiple tailwinds lining up for H2FY27 and FY28 which are likely to further accelerate growth

 Macquarie Kansai Nerolac

• Maintain Neutral with TP of Rs 215
• Constructive outlook; hopes of industrial price hike
• Q1 Ebitda marginally ahead of our above-street estimate
• See growth concerns from slower pace of price hikes in industrial.

MS on Kansai Nerolac

• Maintain Underweight with TP of Rs 193
• Q1 – topline growth inline; margins weak
• Competitive intensity remains high, although the market has reached an equilibrium
• Opus now competing for higher counter throughput.
• Company reiterated FY27 EBITDA margin guidance of 13–14%, with Q2 margin expected to remain flat YoY.

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 MS on Financials

• Foreign banks' incremental FCNR (B) share is 29.9% vs. their total deposit market share of 4.5-5.0% observed in recent years
• Similar statistics for other major bank groups: Private banks (38.3% vs. 35.7%) and PSU banks (31.6% vs. 58.2%)
•  Banks with higher incremental FCNR (B) share: ICICI (13.2% vs. 6.7%), Kotak (5.9% vs. 2.1% ), Axis (5.7% vs. 5.0%), HSBC (21.9% vs. 0.9%), SCB (6.6% vs 0.6%)

 Citi on Banks

• Bank-level data contradicts prevailing market narrative that PSU banks would be primary mobilizers
• Private banks mobilized US$10.7bn (38.3% of net inflows), mirroring their deposit market share
• Foreign banks contributed US$8.4bn (30%), led by HSBC/StanC (US$6.1bn/US$1.86bn)
• Despite holding 61%/51% market share in deposits/FCNR(B), PSU banks captured only 31.6% of net inflows
• ICICI/Kotak/YES/RBL outperformed, while HDFC/SBI/BOB/BOI/Union Bank/Federal Bank/ IDFC lagged relative to their market share
• On a deposit-base basis, RBL (4.3%), Kotak (2.8%), YES (2.4%) and ICICI (1.9%) led mobilization, whereas HDFC (0.4%) trailed peers
• PSU banks, on average, mobilized FCNR(B) deposits equivalent to just 0.5% of deposit base
• With two additional months remaining, mobilization velocity will accelerate substantially across banks.

 MS on IGI

• Maintain Overweight with TP of Rs 462
• Company reiterated its growth drivers
• Certification market (by volume) is projected to expand at a 17-19% CAGR over CY25-30, per management
• LGD pricing at the wholesale level has been flat (stability) over the last two years
• The industry is seeing growers add capacity after almost three years
• Guidance of 15% top-line growth and 20% EBITDA growth for F27 reiterated
• Management emphasized that the growth would be volume-led
• Transition from just a B2B company to also a B2C company continues for IGI, given its large brand-building exercise in the Indian market.

Jefferies on Torrent Power

• Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 1780 from Rs 1700
• Lower gas PLFs YoY - on expected lines
• RE capacity to rise at least 3x by FY30E
• Reported ROE steady at 12-13% over FY26-30E to drive upside
• Transmission infra unavailability is leading to delays in commissioning timelines
• Expect 13% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-30E led by 36% CAGR in RE EBITDA. 

Jefferies on DLF

• Maintain buy with TP of Rs 815
• Weak start, Cash buildup continues
• Very low pre-sales on lack of launches, and a consequent 15% YoY decline in cash collections
• Cash accumulation though continued with a Rs 1050 cr FCF generation
• Lease income at DCCDL +9% YoY was inline with ests. and continued to drive profitability.

MS on DLF

• Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 730
• Q1 Weaker than Expected
• Q1 pre-sales of Rs 660 cr was below Rs 1000 cr estimate. 

Macquarie on Adani Green

• Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 1800
• Merchant risk out, visibility in
• 82% of run-rate EBITDA is now rated AA- or better versus nil in April '19
• Management explicitly highlighted that the contracted framework enables higher leverage at a lower cost of capital
• This enables a Rs2.4 lakh cr capex program to 2030E
• With almost all operational capacity contracted, merchant price sensitivity is effectively removed, providing improved cash flow visibility
• Further, counterparties rated AA+ or better have risen from 68% pre tie-up to 86%.

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Kotak Securities on Exide Industries

• Maintain Sell; Hike TP to Rs 325 from Rs 300
• Strong lead-acid business performance
• In the lead acid business, expect the company to continue to deliver a steady performance
• Exide is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for LiB
• Believe that profitability and return ratios will be under pressure
• See high capex requirements, commoditized and B2B nature of the business and dependency on partner for technical know-how. 

Citi on Exide

• Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 510 from Rs 410
• Mgmt outlook optimistic post strong Q1FY27
• See strong demand across segments in both rural and urban market
• Li-ion cell plant is approaching commercialization phase
• Await More Details on Li Ion Cell Business Customer Wins and Revenue. 

Jefferies on UPL

• Maintain Buy; Cut TP to Rs 715 from Rs 810
• Jun-26 Review: Operationally soft; valuation undemanding
• Revenue growth was driven entirely by forex
• Ebitda growth was soft despite inventory gain in UPL SAS
• Working capital expanded while net debt was flat
• Company guided for revenue growth of 7-11% and EBITDA growth of 10-14% in FY27
• Stock has corrected 21% in YTDCY26. 

Macquarie on Escorts Kubota

• Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 3485
• Margin-led EBITDA miss
• Demand revival in core markets and product launches
• Raises tractor growth guidance
• Should benefit from market-share gains in FY27E despite moderating industry demand YoY. 

Jefferies on Banks

• Halfway into the timeline, banks have mobilized >$40bn through FCNR-B & other lines
• Gross FCNR-B inflow is $37bn, but net add to deposit is lower at $28bn
• Private, PSU & foreign banks have 30-38% share of total flows
• HSBC, SBI, StanChart, ICICI lead, but HDFC has lagged
• Select large Pvt Bks raised rates by 10-25 bps & others may follow
• So the sector can aim for $80-100bn of inflows
• Liquidity is improving; NBFCs, smaller Pvt Bks benefit more from inflows.

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