- Silver prices in India rebounded sharply, rising over 2.4% from daily lows on strong global gains
- MCX silver rate increased by Rs 2,699 to Rs 2,43,350 per kg amid sustained buying momentum
- Gold prices rose 0.20% to Rs 1,59,320 per 10 grams with support from central bank purchases
Silver prices in India saw a sharp rebound from day's low on Friday, following strong gains in international prices, supported by strong buying momentum.
MCX silver rate rallied Rs 2,699, or 1.12%, to Rs 2,43,350 per kg. It hit an intraday high of Rs 2,44,950 level, rising as much as 1.78% from previous closing price. From day's low of Rs 2,39,049, silver prices surged by Rs 5,901, or 2.46%.
MCX gold rate was up by Rs 324, or 0.20%, at Rs 1,59,320 per 10 grams, after hitting a high of Rs 1,59,741 level.
Analysts believe the outlook for gold and silver prices remain bullish on account of multiple positive factors supporting the bullion.
“Gold and silver prices are likely witnessing buying after the recent fall. The decline in crude oil prices have cooled inflation concerns and eased worries over the US Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The US dollar has also slipped below 99 level, lifting the appeal for precious metals,” said Ajay Kedia, Director, Kedia Advisory.
Additionally, sustained buying of gold by central banks and rising inflows in the ETFs are also supporting gold and silver prices, he added.
ALSO READ: Silver Rate Today: White Metal Prices Fall Over Rs 1,600 On MCX, Slump Rs 7,500 In Five Sessions
Investors now focus on US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, for future outlook on the interest rate trajectory.
Monarch PMS expects gold prices to be in the range of $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver at $70-$85 per ounce by end-2026 as its base case, with a 55% probability.
“The scenario assumes the US Federal Reserve holds rates through September, energy prices normalise, real yields plateau and central banks maintain purchases of around 250 tonnes a quarter,” Monarch PMS said in a report.
In its bull case, assigned a 25% probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce and silver $95-$120 levels if weakness in the labour-market forces the Fed to ease repo rates, real yields roll over, institutional reallocation into precious metals resumes and physical tightness in silver returns.
Silver's supply-demand fundamentals also remain supportive, with a sixth consecutive annual deficit, 762 million ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021 and mine supply broadly flat for a decade.
With paper claims on COMEX roughly 5.6 times registered physical inventory, Monarch expects physical tightness to amplify upside moves if demand strengthens.
ALSO READ: Gold Rate Today: Yellow Metal Falls Over Rs 1,000 On MCX, Slips 3% In Four Sessions
Gold-Silver Ratio
The gold-silver ratio has also normalised, rising from 46x at January's peak to around 69x, close to its 21st-century average. Monarch PMS uses 60x as its model's benchmark.
“This means silver has given back much of its earlier outperformance and now looks relatively cheaper than gold,” said Monarch PMS.
Technical View
According to Ajay Kedia, support for MCX gold lies at Rs 1,56,000, and resistance is seen at Rs 1,67,000 level. Breaching this level could lift gold price to above Rs 1,72,000.
For MCX silver, Kedia sees support Rs 2,35,000 level and resistance at Rs 2,52,000 level.
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