Silver bulls are eyeing a decisive breakout on the Multi Commodity Exchange, with MCX Silver July futures approaching a critical resistance band near Rs 3.06 lakh-Rs 3.15 lakh per kilogram, even as spot silver tests higher global levels.
According to Kotak Securities' latest technical levels report, MCX Silver July futures are currently trading around Rs 2,98,191 per kg, with immediate resistance seen at Rs 3,02,988. A sustained move above that could open the door towards Rs 3,05,951, while the next major hurdle stands at Rs 3,15,544, a level traders are closely watching for a potential breakout extension.
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In the international market, spot silver is hovering near $86.75 per ounce, with resistance levels placed at $88.30, $89.30 and $92.45, signalling that global momentum remains supportive for the white metal.
Analysts say domestic silver prices are also adjusting to India's revised import cost structure following the duty changes, though the current rally is still largely linked to overseas trends and currency movements.
“What we are seeing in domestic prices today is a mechanical re-pricing to a new import parity, not a fundamental rally. The duty is now a fixed cost embedded in the price,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities.
“From here, gold and silver in India will continue to be driven by what they have always been driven by, the international LBMA spot price, the USD/INR exchange rate, and the domestic premium or discount over import parity. The duty has done its job and become a sunk cost,” he said.
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Banerjee added that the brokerage remains structurally bullish on precious metals over the longer term.
“Our structural view on gold and silver remains constructive. The global de-dollarisation theme, central bank buying, and currency-debasement hedging are all multi-year drivers that operate independently of any domestic tax decision. We expect international gold to move towards $6,000 an ounce over the next 12 to 18 months, with silver positioned as a meaningful beneficiary alongside.”
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