A reshuffle in the benchmark BSE Sensex could put Trent under pressure and bring Hindalco Industries or Shriram Finance into the 30-stock index, according to a note from Nuvama Wealth Management.
Nuvama's Alternative and Quantitative Research team expects Trent to be excluded from the June 2026 review, citing a decline in its free-float market capitalisation following recent underperformance. The brokerage estimates the move could trigger passive outflows of about $257 million from the stock.
The bigger question is who takes Trent's place. Nuvama says Hindalco and Shriram Finance are the two leading candidates. While Shriram Finance currently has the larger free-float market capitalisation, the brokerage believes Hindalco may have a higher probability of inclusion because the index committee often considers sector representation while making final decisions.
If Hindalco is selected, Nuvama estimates passive inflows of approximately $366 million, equivalent to around 37.4 million shares and 5.5 days of average trading volume. If Shriram Finance is chosen instead, passive inflows could be even larger at about $445 million, or 38.5 million shares.
Although index reviews are based on established methodology, Nuvama notes that the final inclusion decision retains an element of subjectivity. The BSE index committee may weigh macroeconomic and sectoral representation alongside pure market-cap rankings. That nuance explains why Hindalco is viewed as a slight favourite despite Shriram Finance's numerical lead on some measures.
The market-cap cut-off date for the review was April 30, 2026. Nuvama expects the official announcement around May 22, 2026, with any changes becoming effective from June 22 after adjustment on June 19.
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