Crude oil prices are expected to hover in the range of $80-90 per barrel in the second half of the 2026 calendar year as inventory levels decline, considering that normalisation of flows and replenishing stocks will take time.
Oil prices may rise to $80-90 per barrel in H2 2026 amid high global demand for filling inventories, said Jim Burkhard, Vice-President and Head of Research for Oil Markets, Energy and Mobility at S&P Global Energy.
"If flows via (Strait of) Hormuz and Gulf production do begin to recover, it will take time — and global oil inventories will continue to fall through June and July. This means, despite the fall in prices so far in June, that upward price pressure could return as inventories fall to even lower levels,” he said.
Also, demand for crude oil and products to replenish inventories will be a factor later this year and in 2027.
The war may be over, but the market and policy impact of the Hormuz disruption continues, Burkhard said.
Burkhard said the MoU signed by the US and Iran on June 17 may signal the beginning of recovery, but while it answers some questions it also creates more, he added.
“Iran has promised to provide 60 days of free passage for ships using the Strait of Hormuz, but what happens after that? The durability of the US-Iran deal — which also involves Lebanon — will be challenged by deep levels of mistrust between the two sides. Implementation will not be smooth and steady. The MoU already faces a mixed political reception in the US,” he added.
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz was the largest oil supply disruption in history. Despite a 15 million b/d cut in Gulf liquids production, adaptive logistics and alternative shipping routes have sustained global energy flows, he added.
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