Macquarie Hikes Adani Ports Target Price On Resilient Domestic Volumes, Global Scaling

Multinational brokerage Macquarie raised the 12-month share price target for Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. with an 'outperform' rating, emphasising resilience in domestic operations alongside accelerating international expansion. The new target of Rs 1,860, from Rs 1,760 earlier, indicates an upside potential of 26% over the previous close on the NSE.

The key driver behind upward revisions is the consolidation of North Queensland Export Terminal (NQXT), a dedicated deep-water coal export terminal in Australia bought last year, which brings roughly 40 million metric tonnes of contracted capacity. 

Analyst Baiju Joshi said the acquisition prompted an increase in FY27 and FY28 volume and earnings estimates, strengthening confidence in the company's medium‑term growth outlook.

Near‑term domestic container volumes at Mundra Port are expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing disruption due to the Iran war. However, Joshi said this softness will be effectively offset by several other growth levers including a ramp‑up in international volumes, higher transshipment activity, and an improvement in coal volumes supported by the restart of Tata Power Co.'s Mundra plant. As a result, the overall earnings impact from domestic weakness is expected to be limited.

NQXT consolidation is projected to directly add about 40 MMT to FY27 volumes and contribute Rs 1,400-1,500 crore to operating income (Ebitda), materially improving ADSEZ's cash‑flow visibility. 

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Adani Ports Q4, FY26 Projection

For quarter ended March 31, Adani Ports' revenues and Ebitda are estimated to grow 18% year‑on‑year and 6% year‑on‑year respectively, largely driven by consolidation benefits. For the full fiscal, domestic volumes are expected to grow by approximately 5%, slightly below the broader growth rate of India's major ports, Joshi said.

Long‑term assumptions remain broadly unchanged. The brokerage builds in total volumes of 850MMT by FY30, which is below management's stated guidance of 1,000 MMT. Despite this conservative stance, strong cash‑flow generation is expected to support balance‑sheet improvement, with net debt to Ebitda continuing to trend lower.

Adani Ports Share Price Movement

Shares of Adani Ports have risen 27% in the last 12 months and remain flat year-to-date. 

All 26 analysts tracking Adani Ports have a 'buy' rating on the stock, according to Bloomberg data. The average of 12-month price targets of Rs 1,828 indicates a potential upside of 24%.

ALSO READ: Adani Ports Crosses 500 Million Tonnes, Charts Course to 1 Billion by 2030

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