Jio Platforms IPO Listing Today: Japanese brokerage Nomura has initiated coverage on Jio Platforms with a ‘Buy' rating and a target price of Rs 1,340 per share, implying nearly 20% upside to its IPO price of Rs 1,119.
“We initiate coverage of Jio with a ‘Buy' rating and TP of Rs 1,340. Our TP is based on 12x Dec 2028F rolling EBITDA, the same multiple we ascribe to Bharti Airtel's India wireless business,” said Nomura, in a note dated October 28, 2026.
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Analysts Bineet Banka and Abhishek Bhandari expect the telecom operator to benefit from tariff hikes, rising broadband penetration and lower capital expenditure, with the company entering a new phase of monetisation.
The brokerage expects Jio Platforms to deliver a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 13.5% in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) over FY26–FY29. Its target price is based on 12 times December 2028 forecast EBITDA, using the same multiple assigned to Bharti Airtel's India wireless business.
Tariff Hikes Could Drive Jio's Next Growth Phase
Nomura believes Jio's focus is shifting from subscriber additions to generating more revenue from each customer. Three tariff hikes since 2019 have nearly doubled its mobile broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) to Rs 200 in FY26.
However, the brokerage sees further room for pricing increases. Data costs in India remain at around Rs 7.5 per GB, compared with Rs 33 in China and Rs 228 in the US. Indian consumers spend approximately 1% of disposable income on connectivity, below the 1.6–2.3% range seen globally, according to the report.
Nomura expects a potential industry-wide tariff hike of 15% in November–December 2026 to provide an immediate trigger for ARPU growth. Over the medium to long term, Jio could pursue further tariff increases through tiered pricing instead of flat unlimited-data bundles, alongside premiumisation through 5G network slicing.
The brokerage estimates that India's mobile market could expand from Rs 2.9 trillion in FY26 to Rs 5.2 trillion by FY31.
Broadband Offers A Second Growth Engine
Nomura sees home broadband as another major opportunity for Jio, given India's relatively low penetration. Home broadband reaches approximately 21% of Indian households, compared with a global average of more than 70%, leaving an addressable market of over 300 million households.
Jio's fixed broadband subscriber base stood at 28.6 million in June 2026, compared with Airtel's 14.7 million, according to the report. Nomura attributes Jio's expansion partly to its increasingly aggressive fixed wireless access (FWA) and unlicensed-band radio (UBR) rollout strategy.
The brokerage believes the FWA model is capital-efficient because Jio leases customer-premises equipment from third-party lessors. This contrasts with fibre-to-the-home deployments, where around 25% of homes passed do not convert into customers, potentially leaving fibre investment unutilised.
Falling Capex Could Improve Free Cash Flow
Nomura believes Jio's heavy 5G investment cycle is largely behind it. Capital expenditure fell to around 23% of revenue in FY26 from approximately 35% in FY25, according to the report, creating scope for stronger free cash flow as investment intensity declines.
The balance sheet has also improved, with net debt-to-equity, including deferred payment obligations, falling to 0.37 times in FY26 from 0.56 times in FY24. Nomura expects Jio Platforms to become net debt-free by FY29.
Global Technology Licensing Offers Longer-Term Upside
Beyond telecom services, Nomura sees potential in Jio's proprietary technology. The company has developed an end-to-end 5G stack covering its core network, devices and operations and business support systems, while its UBR technology could create licensing opportunities with global telecom operators.
Jio is initially targeting up to 12 strategic partnerships, potentially reaching 1.5 billion users across markets in the US, Germany, South America, East Asia and Africa, according to the brokerage.
What Are The Risks To Nomura's Buy Call?
Nomura flagged delays in tariff hikes, increases below expectations, and higher handset and equipment costs as key downside risks to its outlook.
The brokerage's investment thesis rests on Jio moving beyond subscriber-led expansion towards stronger monetisation, while lower capital expenditure and broadband growth support profitability and cash generation.
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