Shares of ITC Ltd. are facing pressure in trade on Friday after the company reported its fourth quarter earnings for the financial year ending March 2026. The stock opened at Rs 305, before reaching intraday low of Rs 303.4, accounting for cuts of more than 1%.
The pressure in the ITC scrip comes on the back of Q4FY26 results, which were largely in line, although revenue metrics missed analyst estimates. The numbers around cigarette sales have also generated some anxiety, especially with impact of tax hikes to be realised in the next quarter.
ITC Q4FY26 (YoY)
- Net Profit up 4.9% at Rs 5,113 crore versus Rs 4,875 crore
- Revenue down 7% at Rs 16,050 crore versus Rs 17,249 crore
- EBITDA up 7.3% at Rs 6,425 crore versus Rs 5,987 crore
- EBITDA Margin at 40.03% versus 34.7% YoY
This comes against the backdrop of an ITC stock that has struggled in the past year or so, falling as much as 29% in the past 12 months and 24% since the turn of the year.
Reacting to the ITC Q4 fineprint, a slew of brokerages have maintained their bearish call on the FMCG giant, with Citi notably maintaining a 'sell' call while Jefferies issued a sharp target price cut.
Brokerages On ITC
Citi on ITC
Citi maintained its ‘Sell' rating on ITC with a target price of Rs 290. The brokerage said Q4FY26 highlighted regulatory overhang concerns and ongoing structural risks. It expects near-term performance to stay weak, with the impact of the cigarette tax hike likely becoming clearer in Q1FY27. Citi added that staggered price hikes could hurt realizations and profitability, while volume trends and competitive intensity will remain key monitorables through FY27.
Morgan Stanley on ITC
Morgan Stanley maintained its ‘Equal-weight' rating on ITC with a target price of Rs 346. The brokerage said Q4FY26 performance was broadly in line with expectations, though the impact of the cigarette tax hike remains the key focus. EBIT growth in cigarettes, FMCG, and paper was ahead of estimates, while the agri business lagged. It expects the stock to remain range-bound in the near term.
JPMorgan on ITC
JPMorgan maintained its ‘Neutral' rating on ITC with a target price of Rs 325. The brokerage noted that Q4 EBITDA beat estimates, but said Q1FY27 will be crucial in assessing the impact of the cigarette tax hike. It added that the FMCG and paper businesses are showing improving trends, while pricing actions and cost optimization should help offset inflationary pressures.
Jefferies on ITC
Jefferies maintained its ‘Hold' rating on ITC and cut its target price to Rs 350 from Rs 400. The brokerage said Q4FY26 performance was strong, led by cigarettes, though the impact of the sharp tax hike was only partially visible. It expects the real impact to emerge in Q1FY27, with volumes and margins likely to face pressure. The stock is expected to remain range-bound in the near term.
Macquarie on ITC
Macquarie maintained its ‘Neutral' rating on ITC with a target price of Rs 330. The brokerage said Q4FY26 was impacted by tax transition-related disruptions, while cigarette volume momentum remains the key monitorable. It highlighted healthy FMCG demand and improving paper margins, but flagged weaker agri EBIT growth due to disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Macquarie expects profitability to take a hit in Q1FY27 as ITC focuses on protecting market share.
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