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CareEdge Research Report
Highlights:
The gross domestic product figures, with third-quarter GDP growth at 8.4% and the second advanced estimate projecting a full-year growth of 7.6%, have come as a positive surprise.
In terms of quarterly growth, the GDP growth of 8.4% in Q3 FY24 marks the highest in six quarters. The gross value added growth was reported at 6.5%.
The very wide gap in GDP and GVA growth numbers can be mainly attributed to the strong growth in net taxes. Net taxes have grown by 32% in Q3 FY24 in real terms.
Although industrial growth experienced a sequential slowdown, it maintained a double-digit growth momentum, expanding by 10.4% YoY in Q3 FY24.
The services sector demonstrated improvement sequentially and the agriculture growth contracted.
While the growth of third quarter remained strong, there were upward revision in the growth of the Q1 and Q2 by 40 bps and 50 bps respectively.
Despite sequential improvement, overall consumption growth continues to remain feeble below pre-pandemic average of ~7%.
Going forward, the most critical aspect to watch out for will be a broad-based improvement in consumption growth and private investments.
The upward revisions in data for the full-year FY24 pose a potential downside risk to our existing FY25 forecast of 6.7%.
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