India Economy Watch - Decoding Consumption Trends: Rural Income, Profitability Remain Weak: Motilal Oswal

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BQ Prime's special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India's top brokerages, asset managers and research agencies. These reports offer BQ Prime's subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy. 

Motilal Oswal Report

An analysis of 12 indicators of rural consumption suggests that the sector grew 6.1% YoY in H1 FY23 as compared to 1.7% YoY in H1 FY22. Moreover, rural consumption grew 5.4% YoY in Q2 FY23 as against 7.8%/down 2.7% YoY in Q1 FY23/Q2 FY22.

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Besides a favorable base, a strong growth in the fiscal spending supported the rural economy in Q2 FY23.

Urban consumption (using nine indicators) grew a strong 12.7% YoY in H1 FY23, following a 20.4% YoY growth in H1 FY22. It is estimated to have increased by 8.9 % YoY in Q2 FY23 as against a 17.2%/7.8% growth in Q1 FY23/Q2 FY22.

Salary and wages of listed companies grew at double-digits for the first time in about four years. House prices also increased for the first time in five years.

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A close look at the farm sector suggests a mixed bag. While rainfall and fiscal spending seem to be favorable, wages of farmers continue to lag. As the southwest monsoon ended in surplus, and given the decent post-monsoon rainfall, both Kharif sowing and the on-going Rabi sowing has been good so far.

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