Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL) slumped 5% intraday on Thursday, May 14, after the state-run oil-marketing company (OMC) announced its January-March quarter results for fiscal 2025-26 (Q4FY26). HPCL share price dropped in early trade even after the oil refiner reported a 46% surge in standalone net profit during the March quarter of FY26. HPCL also declared a final dividend of Rs 19.25 per share, which was its highest payout towards shareholders in nearly five years.
On Thursday, shares of HPCL opened at Rs 388.80 against a previous close of Rs 390.10 and slumped 5% to hit an intraday low of Rs 370.95 apiece on the NSE. Shares last traded 3.95% lower at Rs 374.90 apiece on the NSE. The stock has slumped 6.3% in one week, gained 6.35 in one month, and slumped 25.4% on a year-to-date basis. In the last one year, the stock has risen 6.3%, according to NSE data. The oil-marketing PSU currently commands a market cap of Rs 79,686.95 crore.
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HPCL Q4 Results
HPCL reported a standalone net profit of Rs 4,902 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, marking a 46% rise from the Rs 3,355 crore in the year-ago period. The state-run company also announced a final dividend of Rs 19.25 apiece for its shareholders. The oil marketing company's standalone total income rose 4.5% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 1.24 lakh crore in the January-March quarter of FY26, from Rs 1.19 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. HPCL's revenue from operations for the March quarter of FY27 stood at Rs 1.15 lakh crore, the same as the December quarter.
Buy or sell HPCL shares post-Q4?
Domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated its 'buy' call on HPCL with a target price of Rs 455 in its Q4 results analysis. ''HPCL currently trades at 1.1x FY27E P/B. We estimate the company to deliver RoE of 16.2% in FY28 and a 5.4% FY28E dividend yield. We have not assumed any significant benefit from the start-up of a bottom-upgradation unit and Project Samriddhi. We reiterate our BUY rating on the stock with an SoTP-based TP of Rs 455,'' said the brokerage.
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HPCL remains the preferred stock pick among the three OMCs (IOC, BPCL, and HPCL) for Motilal Oswal. ''We model a marketing margin of Rs 4.5/lit for both MS and HSD in 2HFY27-FY28. We view the following as key catalysts for the stock: 1) the ramp-up of its bottom-upgrade unit by the end of 1QFY27, and 2) the start of its Rajasthan refinery in 2QFY27,'' it added.
However, global brokerage Citi has cut the target price on the counter, lowering it from Rs 595 to Rs 485. The brokerage did maintain a 'buy' rating on the stock, but acknowledged there could be near-term pain as the oil marketing company continues to bear the brunt of elevated crude prices emanating from the Iran war. Citi calling HPCL's Q4 earnings a 'positive surprise' amid headwinds.
Citi believes the duration of these headwinds will be key, meaning an early end to the Iran war could greatly benefit HPCL. Even if the war continues, the brokerage is keeping a close tab on Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri's recent comments, where he hinted that fuel price hikes could be likely. Macquarie estimates that India's OMCs like HPCL are losing Rs 18 per litre on the sale of petrol and Rs 35 per litre on the sale of diesel. If this continues, HPCL could be staring at tough times, which is where fuel price hikes or an early end to the Iran war could prove to be key.
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