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HDFC Securities Institutional Equities
India's home loan market (Rs 26 trillion; 17% of overall credit) is poised to double by FY28E on the back of secular trends around improving affordability, rising urbanisation and penetration beyond tier-I locations.
Driven by the combination of a sustained funding cost advantage, structural shift in sourcing models, renewed focus on retail home loan and transient rate cycle tailwinds, banks (~67% of home loan market) are likely to continue dominating the prime home loan segment.
Affordable-focused housing finance companies (~Rs 1 trillion; 4% of home loan market) have emerged as high-growth, high-return on asset businesses; however, given the superior economics, this segment is witnessing rising competitive intensity.
Going forward, the market micro-structure is likely to reflect newer collaborative models which are still evolving.
We initiate coverage on Can Fin Homes Ltd. and PNB Housing Finance Ltd. as emerging value plays and Aavas Financiers Ltd., Home First Finance Company India Ltd. and Aptus Value Housing Finance India Ltd. among affordable-focused housing finance companies.
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