Gold prices could remain range-bound in the near term as geopolitical tensions in West Asia and the strengthening US dollar continue to weigh on investor sentiment, according to a latest report by ICICI Bank's Economic Research Group.
The report said gold, after witnessing a massive rally in 2025, has come under sharp selling pressure since the outbreak of the West Asia conflict, with the global dollar trajectory emerging as a key factor influencing bullion prices.
ICICI Bank expects international gold prices to trade in the range of $4,400 per ounce to $4,600 per ounce in the near term, while warning that prices could slip further towards $4,200 per ounce if tensions in the region escalate again.
The report noted that gold prices have corrected nearly 15% since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, largely due to the rebound in the US dollar.
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Analysts said the United States' status as a net crude oil exporter and the safe-haven appeal of US assets during global uncertainty have strengthened the greenback, triggering a selloff in non-dollar assets, including gold.
Scaling $5,000 By 2026-End Possible
Despite the recent correction, the bank maintained a constructive medium-term outlook for bullion, citing concerns over the US dollar's reserve currency status, rising public debt levels, expansionary fiscal policies, and continued central bank buying as key structural supports for gold prices.
The report projected that global gold prices could rise to $4,800–5,000 per ounce by December 2026 and further to $5,400–5,600 per ounce by the end of 2027.
However, it cautioned that aggressive monetary tightening by major central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, could cap gains by pushing bond yields and the dollar higher.
On the domestic front, the report said Indian gold prices have surged around 20% so far in 2026 due to rupee depreciation, higher global prices, and increased customs duty.
The bank expects local gold prices to trade between Rs 1.5 lakh and Rs 1.8 lakh per 10 grams through the remainder of 2026. The prices "can move to the Rs 1.6 lakh per 10 grams to Rs 1.9 lakh per 10 grams responding to the uptrend in global gold prices and depreciation in the rupee", it noted.
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It also highlighted that India's gold imports jumped 81% year-on-year in April, even as import volumes moderated amid elevated prices.
Gold ETF inflows, meanwhile, slowed sharply during March and April compared to the strong inflows seen earlier this year.
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