As geopolitical tensions keep markets on edge, Equity Intelligence founder Porinju Veliyath believes investors should shift focus away from trying to predict outcomes and instead look for selective opportunities. Speaking to NDTV Profit, Veliyath noted that markets have historically rebounded after crises-from financial meltdowns to the COVID-19 pandemic-but the timing of such recoveries is impossible to predict.
"These events always look clear in hindsight, but nobody knows when they end," he said, adding that conflicts often fade gradually rather than conclude decisively. For investors, that uncertainty should not drive decision-making.
While volatility has increased, Veliyath cautioned against assuming markets are broadly cheap. He pointed out that equities had seen an extended rally post-COVID, with several small- and mid-cap stocks delivering outsized returns.
Even after the recent correction, he believes the current phase does not resemble deep-value opportunities seen during major market dislocations. "This is not a COVID-like bottom," he said, adding that falling prices alone are not sufficient reason to buy stocks. Instead, investors need to assess underlying fundamentals and earnings visibility.
Selective Opportunities in Small- and Mid-caps
Despite his measured stance, Veliyath sees opportunities emerging-particularly in select small- and mid-cap stocks.
He noted that value investors are already "fishing" in the market, focusing on cherry-picked ideas rather than broad-based buying. The correction over the past six to seven quarters, especially in the broader market, has created pockets of value for those willing to look closely.
At the same time, he cautioned that benchmark indices like the Sensex and Nifty could remain volatile, given ongoing global uncertainties.
Macro Comfort for India
On the macro front, Veliyath struck a relatively optimistic note on India's preparedness to deal with external shocks, particularly rising oil prices.
He highlighted that India's dependence on oil imports as a share of GDP has reduced significantly over the years, alongside improvements in financial discipline and diversification into alternative energy sources.
This, he said, provides some cushion even as crude price volatility remains a key risk.
Veliyath also pointed to a near-term technical factor: tax-loss harvesting in March. Stocks that have already corrected sharply could see additional selling pressure as investors book losses for tax purposes. This, in turn, could create tactical buying opportunities in beaten-down names.
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