BFSIs Q1 Results Preview - NIMs Moderate; Growth, Earnings Momentum Continue: Dolat Capital

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Dolat Capital Report

Banks are expected to post strong net interest income growth of 30% YoY, even as we build in sequential moderation in net interest margin across most banks in Q1 FY24.

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Public sector banks should see stable to improving NIM in Q1 FY24 led by higher share of Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate loans which are re-pricing with a lag.

Profitability will also benefit from low credit costs and higher treasury gains, with profit after tax growth at 57% YoY. We factor in loan growth of 17% YoY and 2.5% QoQ for coverage banks during the quarter.

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Asset quality trends are likely to remain steady, despite seasonally higher agri slippages. Traction in retail deposits and NIM/growth outlook remain key monitorables.

Affordable housing financiers are expected to report robust growth at over 5-6% QoQ and 29% YoY. Higher National Housing Bank drawings and prime lending rate hikes should support spreads, even as we see sharper rise in cost of bank borrowings hereon.

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