Just weeks ago, the race for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards seemed almost decided. Actor Timothée Chalamet, praised for his performance in Marty Supreme, was widely seen as the clear frontrunner. But as the Oscars approach, the momentum appears to have shifted dramatically — and Actor Michael B. Jordan has quietly moved into the lead.
Chalamet had a strong awards season early on. The 30-year-old actor won major honours, including the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Award, strengthening the belief that he was on track for his first Oscar. His energetic portrayal of the intense and unpredictable Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme earned both critical praise and box-office success.
The film even became one of A24's highest-grossing releases, earning around $162 million worldwide. However, the race took an unexpected turn in recent weeks.
Jordan, nominated for his dual role as twin brothers Smoke and Stack in the supernatural drama Sinners, suddenly gained momentum after winning the 32nd Annual Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) for Best Actor. The SAG win is often considered a strong predictor of Oscar success because many SAG voters are also members of the Academy. His surprise victory immediately reshaped predictions across Hollywood.
Industry tracking sites and prediction markets like Gold Derby soon reflected the shift. Betting platforms and awards analysts began placing Jordan ahead of Chalamet, with some estimates giving the Sinners star nearly a 60 per cent chance of winning compared to Chalamet's declining odds.
Several factors have contributed to this change
First, Sinners has emerged as a powerful contender during awards season. The film, set in the Jim Crow-era American South, explores racism and supernatural horror while following twin brothers returning home after World War I. Its strong themes and Jordan's challenging dual performance have earned wide recognition from critics and voters alike.
Meanwhile, Chalamet's highly visible promotional campaign — which included viral stunts, social media appearances and unconventional publicity moments — may have had mixed results. While the campaign boosted the film's popularity, some industry insiders believe it may have felt excessive to more traditional Academy voters.
Recent controversy also added to the discussion. Chalamet faced criticism after remarks suggesting that “nobody cares” about ballet and opera, which sparked backlash online. Although the Academy voting had already closed by then, the reaction affected public perception and awards-season conversation.
With nominees like Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura, and Leonardo DiCaprio also in the category, the competition remains strong. Still, as the Oscars approach, Jordan's late surge has transformed what once looked like Chalamet's race into one of the most unpredictable battles of the year.
Whether Jordan's momentum will carry him to victory — or if Chalamet can reclaim the spotlight — will be revealed on Oscar night.
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