The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a “super” El Nino event is likely to develop from mid-2026, raising concerns over higher global temperatures and changing rainfall patterns.
According to the agency's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly. This signals a possible return of El Nino conditions between May and July 2026. The report also forecasts above-normal land surface temperatures across most parts of the world during this three-month period.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
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What Is El Nino?
El Nino occurs when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific become warmer than normal. The phenomenon usually develops every two to seven years and lasts for nine to twelve months. El Nino can disrupt weather systems globally, often triggering heatwaves, droughts, floods, and irregular monsoon patterns in many regions.
El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is one of the Earth's most powerful climate patterns. According to the WMO, these events strongly influence global rainfall, temperatures, and extreme weather conditions, affecting agriculture, water supply, and disaster preparedness.
Impact Of ‘Super' El Nino?
El Nino affects global temperature and rainfall patterns and usually causes warmer weather worldwide. This is why 2024 became the hottest year on record due to the combined impact of the strong 2023–2024 El Nino event and climate change.
“There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increases the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall,” the WMO explained.
It said that El Nino is usually linked to higher rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. At the same time, it can cause drought conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and several parts of southern Asia.
Impact On India
India, which remains an agrarian economy heavily dependent on the monsoon, could face serious risks if rainfall patterns weaken. Poor or irregular monsoon rains may reduce crop production and affect water availability, hurting socio-economic growth.
In other words, key summer crops (Kharif) such as rice, pulses, oilseeds, sugarcane, and cotton may get impacted as they require steady, predictable moisture in June and July. Delayed or weak rains will stall sowing cycles.
The WMO has warned that for the May-June-July season, land surface temperatures are expected to be above-normal nearly everywhere. This may explain the intense summer conditions being seen across India.
Maximum temperatures have been recorded at 45 - 47°C in parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Vidarbha. According to the India Metrological Department (IMD), temperatures in May were reported to be 2–4°C above normal across many areas of northwest, central, and adjoining peninsular India, increasing heatwave concerns.
The weather agency has also predicted that India may receive weaker than expected monsoon this year. It cited a possible development of an El Nino during the southwest monsoon cycle, which lasts June to September.
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A report by CNN highlighted that even if the anticipated El Nino falls short of being a “super”, it may still have a strong impact, increasing the chances of 2026 or 2027 becoming the hottest years on record.
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