Private weather forecaster Skymet has downgraded its 2026 southwest monsoon outlook, now projecting seasonal rainfall at 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a 70% probability of drought conditions, revising its earlier April 7 forecast in light of weakening rainfall trends through the season.
According to Skymet, countrywide rainfall between June 1 and July 31 stood 13% below LPA, with June ending particularly weak at 65% of LPA after the monsoon nearly stalled during its onset phase.
July saw a stronger start before a "break monsoon" phase in the second week, though the latter half of the month helped rainfall recover to near break-even levels.
Looking ahead, Skymet forecast August rainfall at 84% of LPA (against a benchmark of 254.9mm) and September at 80% of LPA (against 167.9mm), with both months carrying a 70% chance of deficit rain, a 20% chance of below-normal rain and only a 10% chance of normal rainfall.
For the full June-to-September season, Skymet's risk assessment, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 4%, put the probability of outright drought — seasonal rainfall below 90% of LPA — at 70%, with a 20% chance of below-normal rainfall, a 10% chance of normal rainfall, and no probability assigned to an above-normal or excess monsoon.
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Skymet attributed the weaker outlook to strengthening El Nino conditions and uncertainty around the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The firm's managing director, Jatin Singh, said the El Nino was "likely to make a transition" from a strong to a very strong category by early September, adding that such "Super El Nino" events historically tilt the odds toward a weaker monsoon, while a positive IOD was expected to develop but with uncertainty over its timing and strength.
The revised forecast remains valid for the remainder of the 2026 southwest monsoon season, Skymet said.
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