Four crucial states and a Union Territory have gone to polls this month. The second and last phase of voting in West Bengal will take place on April 29. In this phase, 142 seats are up for grabs.
Results for all five contests are due on May 4.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has enforced a comprehensive ban on exit polls, covering both their conduct and publication, to ensure they do not affect voters during multi-stage elections.
The curbs are in effect from 7 am on April 9 to 6:30 pm on April 29. Results of exit polls will be released only after 6:30 pm on Wednesday once the final phase of polling across states has concluded.
As voters anticipate the exit poll results, here is a look at how accurately the survey predicted results in the last election.
What Is An Exit Poll?
Designed to gauge voting patterns, exit polls are based on responses gathered from voters immediately after they leave polling booths, combined with statistical modelling.
ECI bars its publication until all phases of voting are complete to prevent influencing remaining voters.
West Bengal Exit Poll 2021
Historically, exit polls in West Bengal have correctly identified the winning party, though they have frequently miscalculated the margin of victory.
The discrepancy was particularly stark in 2021, when forecasts widely pointed to gains for the Bharatiya Janata Party that did not materialise.
Exit poll estimates differed considerably. Axis forecasted 130-156 seats for the All India Trinamool Congress and 134-160 for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Jan Ki Baat gave the BJP a range of 162-185 seats against 104-121 for the TMC, while ABP-CVoter predicted 152-164 for the TMC and 109-121 for the BJP.
In a House of 294 seats, the All India Trinamool Congress went on to win 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77, underscoring the extent to which exit polls had underestimated the scale of the victory.
Tamil Nadu Exit Poll 2021
In 2021, most exit polls correctly anticipated a victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance, though they overstated the scale of its win. The alliance ultimately secured 159 of the 234 seats, while the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-led bloc finished with 75.
India Today-Axis My India projected 175-195 seats for the DMK+ alliance against 38-54 for AIADMK+. Today's Chanakya forecast 164-186 seats for DMK+ (or 175±11) and 46-68 (or 57±11) for AIADMK+. Jan Ki Baat/CNX placed DMK+ at 160-170 and AIADMK+ at 56-68.
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Kerala Exit Poll 2021
The 2021 Kerala Assembly polls saw the ruling LDF, under the leadership of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), achieve a notable victory with 99 seats in the 140-member House. The CPI(M) accounted for 62 of these, making it the single biggest party.
The exit polls suggested that the incumbent LDF was likely to return to power in Kerala, defying the state's long-standing trend of governments alternating every second election.
The CVoter survey for Times Now/ABP News placed the Left alliance in the range of 71 to 77 seats, narrowly clearing the majority mark. The UDF was projected at 62 to 68 seats, while the NDA was seen winning no more than two seats.
According to the Republic-CNX exit poll, the LDF, headed by Pinarayi Vijayan, was forecasted to win 72-80 seats, suggesting a second consecutive victory in Kerala. The Congress-led UDF was estimated at 58-64 seats, while the NDA was projected to secure between one and five seats.
Axis My India had also forecast an LDF win in the 2021 Assembly elections in Kerala. Its projections placed the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led alliance in the range of 104 to 120 seats.
The UDF was expected to secure between 20 and 36 seats, while the NDA was predicted to win no more than two.
What Is The Methodology Of Exit Polls?
Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted using a small sample of voters.
First, polling agencies select different polling booths and areas across the state. They make a sample which includes all types of voters, including people from cities, villages, different age groups, income levels, and communities. This is called sampling.
They are asked who they voted for, along with basic details like their age, area, and background. Next, all the answers are collected and recorded by the survey team from different polling booths and regions.
After that comes weightage, where the raw data is then weighted and adjusted to show the actual voter distribution in the state based on caste, region, gender, past voting patterns, etc.
Then, experts do an analysis of all the collected data using statistical methods to predict how many seats each party might win based on voting patterns. They also calculate a margin of error, which shows how accurate or uncertain the prediction is.
At the end, it is combined into a final exit poll prediction, which is shared with the public as an estimate of the election outcome.
Where To Watch Exit Polls?
Catch the live stream of Exit Poll results for the 2026 Assembly Election on NDTV Profit. You can also track the live updates on the exit poll results on YouTube and all social media channels of NDTV Profit.
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