BMC Elections 2026: BJP+ Wins A Game Of Alliances In Mumbai

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections have rewritten Mumbai's political map, with the Mahayuti alliance securing a decisive victory that will likely install the city's first-ever BJP mayor. The results mark the end of three decades of Thackeray dominance over Asia's richest municipal body and reflect seismic shifts in Mumbai's demographic and political landscape.

The final tally tells a compelling story: Mahayuti (BJP and Shiv Sena) captured 118 seats, while the opposition alliance of Shiv Sena (UBT), MNS, and NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) managed 72 seats. Congress won 24 seats, NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) secured 3, and others claimed 10 seats. 

The Arithmetic of Victory

The winning candidates' average vote tallies reveal the intensely local and competitive nature of these elections. BJP winning candidates averaged 13,250 votes, followed closely by MNS at 12,491, Shiv Sena (UBT) at 11,042, Congress at 10,110, and Shiv Sena at 9,425. 

Geographically, the Mahayuti's performance varied significantly across Mumbai's diverse landscape. The alliance dominated the western suburbs with 60 percent of seats, secured half the seats in central Mumbai, and managed 40 percent in the island city. 

Deconstructing the Sena Stronghold Myth

The narrative of Shiv Sena's invincible hold over the BMC has always been more myth than reality. The party never secured an outright majority on its own, with its highest tally being 103 seats in 1997. What made Shiv Sena formidable was not individual strength but the perfect alliance it maintained with the BJP for decades—a partnership where Sena mobilized Marathi votes while BJP brought in non-Marathi support, each representing roughly 40 percent of Mumbai's population. 

The 2022 split in Shiv Sena fundamentally altered this equation. The BJP now had what Shiv Sena once possessed: a perfect alliance combining its own non-Marathi base with a Marathi partner, albeit a junior one in the Eknath Shinde-led faction. 

Seat Tally of BJP & SHS Over The Years

Alliance Strategy: Divergence Wins Over Convergence

The strategic brilliance of the Mahayuti alliance lay in combining divergent vote banks—Marathi and non-Marathi communities with different socioeconomic profiles and aspirations. In contrast, the Uddhav Thackeray camp made a critical error by ditching Congress (which brought divergent vote banks of minorities and non-Marathis) and partnering with MNS, which has a complementary vote bank. 

This strategy limited the potential vote share of the opposition. By joining hands with MNS, both factions were essentially fishing in the same Marathi pond, cannibalizing each other's votes rather than expanding the coalition's reach. 

Demographics and the Voting Pattern

The detailed demographic breakdown of voting patterns reveals why the Mahayuti won and what the Thackerays lost. Among female voters, 44 percent backed Mahayuti compared to just 31 percent for the Thackerays. Male voters showed a similar preference, with 40 percent supporting Mahayuti against 33 percent for the Thackerays. This consistent gender gap reflects the success of schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojana in attracting women voters while also indicating that development messaging resonated across genders.

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The most striking revelation concerns the Marathi vote. Despite positioning themselves as champions of Marathi asmita, the Thackeray brothers secured only 49 percent of Marathi voters, while Mahayuti captured 30 percent. The remaining Marathi votes are scattered among various parties, suggesting that Marathi voters are no longer a monolith voting on linguistic lines alone.

Among North Indians, South Indians, and Gujaratis—collectively representing 40 percent population—the Mahayuti enjoyed an overwhelming backing of close to 70%. This counter-consolidation proved decisive. Raj Thackeray's history of targeting migrants through inflammatory speeches and MNS's violent campaigns against north and south Indians drove these communities into Mahayuti's arms. Amongst Muslims Congress maintained a lead of 41% thus limiting Mahayuti's outreach. 

Class and Habitat Divides

The socioeconomic dimension of voting patterns reveals fascinating trends. Among building society residents—typically middle-class families prioritizing infrastructure and governance—51 percent backed Mahayuti while only 29 percent supported the Thackerays. Interestingly, slum dwellers showed different preferences, with 35 percent backing the Thackerays compared to 33 percent for Mahayuti. 

This near-parity suggests that while Thackerays retained some appeal among economically vulnerable Marathi communities, even this traditional base was contested. The Mahayuti's welfare schemes and slum rehabilitation promises prevented a complete sweep by the opposition in these areas.

Mahayuti's appeal to Generation Next youth and the middle class through a development and governance pitch stood in stark contrast to the Thackerays' singular focus on Marathi asmita. In a city where roughly 40 percent are Marathi, 20 percent are Muslims, and 40 percent are non-Marathi, a strategy that speaks only to Marathi identity automatically alienates others.

Devendra Fadnavis understood this new Mumbai. His pitch emphasized infrastructure projects, improved civic amenities, better roads and drainage, efficient governance, and economic opportunities—concerns that resonate across linguistic and regional lines. The Thackerays, meanwhile, offered cultural preservation and protection from outsiders, messages that felt regressive to aspirational voters.

The rise of Fadnavis as a next-generation BJP leader capable of coalition management and broad-based appeal contrasts sharply with the simultaneous decline of family-centric political brands like the Thackerays and Pawars. While Fadnavis built an image around performance and governance, the Thackerays and Pawars relied increasingly on legacy and lineage—a currency that buys less with each passing election.

The Real Sena Question

Despite the overall defeat, Shiv Sena (UBT) won the majority of direct contests against Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena faction. This performance can be interpreted as validation that Uddhav and Raj Thackeray represent the "real" Sena and are legitimate claimants to the Thackeray legacy at least in Mumbai. They gave a tough fight despite the organizational split and resource disadvantages.

The Path Forward

The BMC results represent more than just an electoral setback for the Thackeray family. They signal a fundamental shift in Mumbai's politics—from identity-based mobilization to development-oriented governance, from linguistic pride to cosmopolitan aspiration, and from backward-looking grievance to forward-looking ambition. The sun has set, for now, on the Thackeray era in the BMC.

The question facing the Thackerays is whether they can reinvent themselves for Mumbai's changing electorate. Can they broaden their appeal beyond Marathi identity without losing their core supporters? Can they articulate a vision for Mumbai that includes rather than excludes the city's diverse communities? Can they transition from being protest leaders to governance alternatives?

Mumbai's voters have delivered their verdict: in a city of migrants and dreams, alliances that unite diverse communities around shared aspirations defeat those built on exclusionary identity. The BJP has learned this lesson. The Thackerays are still studying for the next test in 2029. 

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of NDTV Profit or its affiliates. Readers are advised to conduct their own research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment or business decisions. NDTV Profit does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented in this article.
 

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